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微藻生物燃料生产系统的技术经济和蒙特卡罗概率分析。

Techno-economic and Monte Carlo probabilistic analysis of microalgae biofuel production system.

机构信息

Department of Mechanical Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States.

Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States.

出版信息

Bioresour Technol. 2016 Nov;219:45-52. doi: 10.1016/j.biortech.2016.07.085. Epub 2016 Jul 21.

DOI:10.1016/j.biortech.2016.07.085
PMID:27475330
Abstract

This study focuses on the characterization of the technical and economic feasibility of an enclosed photobioreactor microalgae system with annual production of 37.85 million liters (10 million gallons) of biofuel. The analysis characterizes and breaks down the capital investment and operating costs and the production cost of unit of algal diesel. The economic modelling shows total cost of production of algal raw oil and diesel of $3.46 and $3.69 per liter, respectively. Additionally, the effects of co-products' credit and their impact in the economic performance of algal-to-biofuel system are discussed. The Monte Carlo methodology is used to address price and cost projections and to simulate scenarios with probabilities of financial performance and profits of the analyzed model. Different markets for allocation of co-products have shown significant shifts for economic viability of algal biofuel system.

摘要

本研究重点在于描述一个封闭式光生物反应器微藻系统的技术和经济可行性,该系统的年产量为 3785 万升(1000 万加仑)生物燃料。该分析对资本投资和运营成本以及单位藻类柴油的生产成本进行了分类和细分。经济模型显示,藻类原油和柴油的生产成本分别为每升 3.46 美元和 3.69 美元。此外,还讨论了副产品信贷的影响及其对藻类到生物燃料系统经济性能的影响。蒙特卡罗方法用于解决价格和成本预测问题,并模拟具有分析模型财务绩效和利润概率的场景。副产品分配的不同市场已经显示出对藻类生物燃料系统经济可行性的重大转变。

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