Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 100 Europa Dr., Suite 490, Chapel Hill, NC 27517, United States.
Harbor Research, Boulder, CO 80302, United States.
Bioresour Technol. 2017 Feb;225:418-428. doi: 10.1016/j.biortech.2016.11.116. Epub 2016 Dec 2.
This study investigates the use of "real options analysis" (ROA) to quantify the value of greater product flexibility at algal biofuel production facilities. A deterministic optimization framework is integrated with a combined life cycle assessment/techno-economic analysis model and subjected to an ensemble of 30-year commodity price trajectories. Profits are maximized for two competing plant configurations: 1) one that sells lipid-extracted algae as animal feed only; and 2) one that can sell lipid-extracted algae as feed or use it to recover nutrients and energy, due to an up-front investment in anaerobic digestion/combined heat and power. Results show that added investment in plant flexibility does not result in an improvement in net present value, because current feed meal prices discourage use of lipid-extracted algae for nutrient and energy recovery. However, this study demonstrates that ROA provides many useful insights regarding plant design that cannot be captured via traditional techno-economic modeling.
本研究采用“实物期权分析”（ROA）来量化藻类生物燃料生产设施提高产品灵活性的价值。确定性优化框架与生命周期评估/技术经济分析模型相结合，并针对 30 年商品价格轨迹进行了模拟。两种竞争的工厂配置实现了利润最大化：1）仅销售提取脂质后的藻类作为动物饲料；2）可以销售提取脂质后的藻类作为饲料，或者由于前期投资了厌氧消化/热电联产，因此可以利用它来回收营养物质和能源。结果表明，增加工厂灵活性的投资不会导致净现值的提高，因为目前的饲料价格阻碍了提取脂质后的藻类用于营养物质和能源回收。然而，本研究表明，ROA 提供了许多关于工厂设计的有用见解，这些见解无法通过传统的技术经济建模来捕捉。
