Rodríguez-López Jesús, Marrero Gustavo A, González Rosa Marina, Leal-Linares Teresa
Departamento de Economía, Métodos Cuantitativos e Historia Económica, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Carretera de Utrera km.1 41013, Seville, Spain.
Departamento de Economía, Contabilidad y Finanzas and CEDESOG, Campus de Guajara, Universidad de La Laguna, La Laguna, 38071, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Spain.
Accid Anal Prev. 2016 Nov;96:46-55. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.07.029. Epub 2016 Aug 5.
This paper explores the causes behind the downturn in road accidents in Spain across the last decade. Possible causes are grouped into three categories: Institutional factors (a Penalty Point System, PPS, dating from 2006), technological factors (active safety and passive safety of vehicles), and macroeconomic factors (the Great recession starting in 2008, and an increase in fuel prices during the spring of 2008). The PPS has been blessed by incumbent authorities as responsible for the decline of road fatalities in Spain. Using cointegration techniques, the GDP growth rate, the fuel price, the PPS, and technological items embedded in motor vehicles appear to be statistically significantly related with accidents. Importantly, PPS is found to be significant in reducing fatal accidents. However, PPS is not significant for non-fatal accidents. In view of these results, we conclude that road accidents in Spain are very sensitive to the business cycle, and that the PPS influenced the severity (fatality) rather than the quantity of accidents in Spain. Importantly, technological items help explain a sizable fraction in accidents downturn, their effects dating back from the end of the nineties.
本文探讨了过去十年西班牙道路交通事故数量下降背后的原因。可能的原因分为三类：制度因素（始于2006年的扣分制，即PPS）、技术因素（车辆的主动安全和被动安全）以及宏观经济因素（始于2008年的大衰退，以及2008年春季燃油价格上涨）。现任当局认为PPS是西班牙道路死亡人数下降的原因。运用协整技术，国内生产总值增长率、燃油价格、PPS以及机动车所包含的技术项目在统计上似乎与事故显著相关。重要的是，发现PPS在减少致命事故方面具有显著作用。然而，PPS对非致命事故并不显著。鉴于这些结果，我们得出结论，西班牙的道路事故对商业周期非常敏感，并且PPS影响的是事故的严重程度（死亡率）而非事故数量。重要的是，技术项目有助于解释事故下降的很大一部分原因，其影响可追溯到九十年代末。
