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伊朗某流行地区的致命自杀及其风险因素建模

Fatal Suicide and Modelling its Risk Factors in a Prevalent Area of Iran.

作者信息

Nazarzadeh Milad, Bidel Zeinab, Ranjbaran Mehdi, Hemmati Roholla, Pejhan Akbar, Asadollahi Khairollah, Sayehmiri Kourosh

机构信息

The Collaboration Center of Meta-analysis Research (ccMETA), Iranian Research Center on Healthy Aging, Sabzevar University of Medical Sciences, Sabzevar, Iran.

Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran.

出版信息

Arch Iran Med. 2016 Aug;19(8):571-6.

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

This paper aimed to study the epidemiology of suicide and causes related to fatal suicide in Ilam province, west of Iran.

METHODS

All data related to attempted suicide and fatal suicide during 2011-2012 were extracted from the suicide registry of authorized directorates in Ilam Province, Iran. Risk factors for fatal suicide were evaluated using logistic regression modeling and discrimination of model assessed using ROC curve.

RESULTS

A total of 1537 registered cases were analyzed, among which 130 were recorded as fatal suicides (1227 attempted suicides). Overall, 805 (52.4%) cases were female, 9.2% had a history of suicide, 59.3% were married and 63.3% of cases were aged under 24 years. The most common suicide method was overdose of medications (75.5%). In multivariable analysis, male gender (OR: 0.50; CI 95% 0.25 to 0.99) and higher education (OR: 0.36; CI 95% 0.20 to 0.65) were protective factors and application of physical methods (OR: 11.61; 95% CI 5.40 to 24.95) was a risk factor for fatal suicide.

CONCLUSIONS

Female gender, low education level and use of physical methods of suicide were revealed as risk factors of fatal suicide. We suggest population based case-control studies based on the suicide registry data for further assessing the risk factors of suicide in Ilam.

摘要

背景与目的

本文旨在研究伊朗西部伊拉姆省的自杀流行病学及与致命自杀相关的原因。

方法

从伊朗伊拉姆省授权部门的自杀登记处提取了2011 - 2012年期间所有与自杀未遂和致命自杀相关的数据。使用逻辑回归模型评估致命自杀的危险因素,并使用ROC曲线评估模型的辨别力。

结果

共分析了1537例登记病例,其中130例被记录为致命自杀(1227例自杀未遂)。总体而言,805例(52.4%)为女性,9.2%有自杀史,59.3%已婚,63.3%的病例年龄在24岁以下。最常见的自杀方式是过量服药(75.5%)。在多变量分析中,男性(OR:0.50;95%CI 0.25至0.99)和高等教育(OR:0.36;95%CI 0.20至0.65)是保护因素,而使用物理方法(OR:11.61;95%CI 5.40至24.95)是致命自杀的危险因素。

结论

女性、低教育水平和使用物理自杀方法被揭示为致命自杀的危险因素。我们建议基于自杀登记数据进行基于人群的病例对照研究,以进一步评估伊拉姆省自杀的危险因素。

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