Al-Arydah M, Croteau M C, Oraby T, Smith R J, Krewski D
a Masdar Institute of Science and Technology , Abu Dhabi , UAE.
b McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment , University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
J Toxicol Environ Health A. 2016;79(16-17):690-9. doi: 10.1080/15287394.2016.1174001.
The application of a recently developed mathematical model for predicting the spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in wild deer was assessed under different scenarios where harvesting is employed in disease management. A process-based mathematical model for CWD transmission in wild deer populations was recently developed and parameterized by Al-arydah et al. (2011) to provide a scientific basis for understanding the factors that affect spread of CWD and evaluate concomitant disease-control strategies. The impact of gender on CWD transmission was shown to have a significant influence on the spread of the disease in the wild. Our model demonstrates a range of harvesting rates in which CWD is controlled and deer populations survive. However, if harvesting rates are too low, the disease remains endemic for decades. Conversely, the Canadian deer population is eradicated if harvesting rates are excessive. Future investigation includes building the model to assess the spread of CWD under different disease-management scenarios.
在疾病管理中采用捕猎措施的不同情景下，对最近开发的一种用于预测慢性消耗病（CWD）在野生鹿群中传播的数学模型的应用进行了评估。最近，Al-arydah等人（2011年）开发并参数化了一个基于过程的野生鹿群中CWD传播的数学模型，以提供一个科学依据，用于理解影响CWD传播的因素并评估相应的疾病控制策略。结果表明，性别对CWD传播的影响对该疾病在野外的传播具有重大影响。我们的模型展示了一系列能够控制CWD且鹿群得以存活的捕猎率。然而，如果捕猎率过低，该疾病将在数十年内保持地方性流行。相反，如果捕猎率过高，加拿大的鹿群将被根除。未来的研究包括构建该模型，以评估在不同疾病管理情景下CWD的传播情况。
