Oraby Tamer, Tyshenko Michael G, Westphal Margit, Darshan Shalu, Croteau Maxine C, Aspinall Willy, Elsaadany Susie, Cashman Neil, Krewski Daniel
a Department of Mathematics , University of Texas Rio Grande Valley , Edinburg , Texas , USA.
b McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, Institute of Population Health , University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
J Toxicol Environ Health A. 2016;79(16-17):713-28. doi: 10.1080/15287394.2016.1174005.
ABSTARCT Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a neurodegenerative, protein misfolding disease affecting cervids in North America in epidemic proportions. While the existence of CWD has been known for more than 40 years, risk management efforts to date have not been able to curtail the spread of this condition. An expert elicitation exercise was carried out in May 2011 to obtain the views of international experts on both the etiology of CWD and possible CWD risk management strategies. This study presents the results of the following three components of the elicitation exercise: (1) expert views of the most likely scenarios for the evolution of the CWD among cervid populations in Canada, (2) ranking analyses of the importance of direct and indirect transmission routes, and (3) rating analyses of CWD control measures in farmed and wild cervids. The implications of these findings for the development of CWD risk management strategies are described in a Canadian context.
摘要 慢性消耗病（CWD）是一种神经退行性蛋白质错误折叠疾病，在北美以流行程度影响着鹿科动物。虽然慢性消耗病的存在已为人所知超过40年，但迄今为止的风险管理努力未能遏制这种疾病的传播。2011年5月开展了一次专家意见征集活动，以获取国际专家对慢性消耗病病因及可能的慢性消耗病风险管理策略的看法。本研究展示了意见征集活动以下三个部分的结果：（1）专家对加拿大鹿科动物种群中慢性消耗病演变最可能情况的看法，（2）直接和间接传播途径重要性的排名分析，以及（3）对养殖和野生鹿科动物慢性消耗病控制措施的评级分析。在加拿大的背景下描述了这些发现对慢性消耗病风险管理策略制定的影响。
