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血管活性-通气-肾功能评分可准确预测先天性心脏病手术后的住院时间。

Vasoactive-ventilation-renal score reliably predicts hospital length of stay after surgery for congenital heart disease.

机构信息

Department of Pediatrics, Indiana University School of Medicine, Riley Hospital for Children, Indianapolis, Ind.

Department of Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Medicine & Richard M. Fairbanks School of Public Health, Indianapolis, Ind.

出版信息

J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg. 2016 Nov;152(5):1423-1429.e1. doi: 10.1016/j.jtcvs.2016.07.070. Epub 2016 Aug 20.

Abstract

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to further validate the vasoactive-ventilation-renal score as a predictor of outcome in patients recovering from surgery for congenital heart disease. We also sought to determine the optimal time point within the early recovery period at which the vasoactive-ventilation-renal score should be measured.

METHODS

We prospectively reviewed consecutive patients recovering from cardiac surgery within our intensive care unit between January 2015 and June 2015. The vasoactive-ventilation-renal score was calculated at 6, 12, 24, and 48 hours postoperatively as follows: vasoactive-ventilation-renal score = ventilation index + vasoactive-inotrope score + Δ creatinine [change in serum creatinine from baseline*10]. Primary outcome of interest was prolonged hospital length of stay, defined as length of stay in the upper 25%. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated, and areas under the curve with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for all time points. Multivariable logistic regression modeling also was performed.

RESULTS

We reviewed 164 patients with a median age of 9.25 months (interquartile range, 2.6-58 months). Median length of stay was 8 days (interquartile range, 5-17.5 days). The area under the curve value for the vasoactive-ventilation-renal score as a predictor of prolonged length of stay (>17.5 days) was greatest at 12 hours postoperatively (area under the curve = 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.89-0.97). On multivariable regression analysis, after adjustment for potential confounders, the 12-hour vasoactive-ventilation-renal score remained a strong predictor of prolonged hospital length of stay (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.20).

CONCLUSIONS

In a heterogeneous population of patients undergoing surgery for congenital heart disease, the novel vasoactive-ventilation-renal score calculated in the early postoperative recovery period can be a strong predictor of prolonged hospital length of stay.

摘要

目的

我们旨在进一步验证血管活性-通气-肾脏评分作为先天性心脏病术后恢复患者结局的预测因子。我们还试图确定在早期恢复期间测量血管活性-通气-肾脏评分的最佳时间点。

方法

我们前瞻性地回顾了 2015 年 1 月至 2015 年 6 月期间在我们的重症监护病房内接受心脏手术后恢复的连续患者。在术后 6、12、24 和 48 小时计算血管活性-通气-肾脏评分,如下所示:血管活性-通气-肾脏评分=通气指数+血管活性-正性肌力评分+Δ肌酐[血清肌酐基线值的变化*10]。主要观察结果是延长住院时间,定义为住院时间位于前 25%。生成了感兴趣的主要结果的受试者工作特征曲线,并计算了所有时间点的曲线下面积和 95%置信区间。还进行了多变量逻辑回归建模。

结果

我们回顾了 164 名中位年龄为 9.25 个月(四分位距,2.6-58 个月)的患者。中位住院时间为 8 天(四分位距,5-17.5 天)。血管活性-通气-肾脏评分作为预测延长住院时间(>17.5 天)的指标,术后 12 小时的曲线下面积值最大(曲线下面积=0.93;95%置信区间,0.89-0.97)。在多变量回归分析中,在校正潜在混杂因素后,12 小时血管活性-通气-肾脏评分仍然是延长住院时间的强烈预测因子(比值比,1.15;95%置信区间,1.10-1.20)。

结论

在接受先天性心脏病手术的异质患者人群中,在早期术后恢复期计算的新型血管活性-通气-肾脏评分可以是延长住院时间的有力预测因子。

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