Vu Huong Thanh
Faculty of International Business and Economics, University of Economics and Business, Vietnam National University - Hanoi, 144 Xuan Thuy, Cau Giay, Hanoi, Vietnam.
Springerplus. 2016 Sep 7;5(1):1503. doi: 10.1186/s40064-016-3200-7. eCollection 2016.
This paper by adopting the Software on Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade assessed the ex-ante impact of tariff elimination under the European-Vietnam free trade agreement (EVFTA) on Vietnam's pharmaceutical imports from the EU based on two scenarios. The results showed that although Vietnam's tariff removal for the EU's medicines would not result in a significant increase in Vietnam's imports from the EU, Vietnam's deeper integration with ASEAN + 3 and TPP (the Trans-Pacific Partnership) nations would affect quite slightly on its imports from the EU. Therefore, the EU would be still the most important and biggest source of pharmaceuticals for Vietnam in the near future. In addition, there might be an uneven distribution in Vietnam's import increases by the EU nation, pharmaceutical group and product. The simulation results also pointed out that the EVFTA's trade creation effect would be higher than trade diversion effect and therefore the agreement would improve welfare of Vietnam. When Vietnam extends its coverage of tariff elimination to also TPP and ASEAN + 3, Vietnam's welfare would potentially increase more but Vietnam would face with the relatively high increases of pharmaceutical imports from not only the EU but also the US, Australia, South Korea, Thailand and China. Bases on these results, the paper argued that both the Vietnamese government and pharmaceutical enterprises should not neglect the EVFTA and its impacts on the pharmaceutical sector, and perceive clearly the uneven distribution of Vietnam's import changes from the EU by nation and by product to design appropriate business and investment strategy. In addition, Vietnam should take measures to diversify its European import markets to be less dependent on the traditional ones in the current context of the EU. Finally, Vietnam should promote the integration in the pharmaceutical sector with all three groups of nations, especially ASEAN and ASEAN's key partners, to reduce trade diversion effect and raise the welfare of Vietnam, given that Vietnam should consider carefully the point of time to remove tariff for each group to avoid the sudden increase in its pharmaceutical imports.
本文通过采用市场分析与贸易限制软件，基于两种情景评估了欧洲 - 越南自由贸易协定（EVFTA）下关税消除对越南从欧盟进口药品的事前影响。结果表明，尽管越南取消对欧盟药品的关税不会导致其从欧盟的进口显著增加，但越南与东盟 + 3以及跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（TPP）国家的深度一体化对其从欧盟的进口影响甚微。因此，在不久的将来，欧盟仍将是越南最重要且最大的药品来源地。此外，越南从欧盟国家、制药集团和产品的进口增长可能存在不均衡分布。模拟结果还指出，EVFTA的贸易创造效应将高于贸易转移效应，因此该协定将改善越南的福利。当越南将关税消除范围扩大至TPP和东盟 + 3时，越南的福利可能会进一步增加，但越南不仅将面临来自欧盟，还将面临来自美国、澳大利亚、韩国、泰国和中国的药品进口相对大幅增加的情况。基于这些结果，本文认为越南政府和制药企业都不应忽视EVFTA及其对制药行业的影响，应清楚认识到越南从欧盟进口变化在国家和产品层面的不均衡分布，以制定合适的商业和投资策略。此外，在当前欧盟的背景下，越南应采取措施使其从欧洲的进口市场多样化，减少对传统市场的依赖。最后，鉴于越南应仔细考虑对每组国家取消关税的时间点以避免药品进口突然增加，越南应推动与所有三类国家，特别是东盟及其主要伙伴在制药领域的一体化，以减少贸易转移效应并提高越南的福利。
