Moolgavkar S H
J Natl Cancer Inst. 1978 Jul;61(1):49-52. doi: 10.1093/jnci/61.1.49.
The multistage theory of carcinogenesis is briefly reviewed, and the incidence function predicted by the theory is expressed as an "infinite sum" (convergent power series). This expression for the incidence function has the Armitage-Doll approximation as the first non-zero term and explicitly exhibits the dependence of the incidence function on the transition rates. It is then clear that if the transition rates are not small enough (approximately 10(-4/cell/yr), the Armitage-Doll approximation is inappropriate. Retention of one more term (in the series) leads to a better approximation in these cases. This is illustrated by a hypothetical example. Other assumptions implicit in the theory are discussed.
简要回顾了癌症发生的多阶段理论，并将该理论预测的发病率函数表示为“无穷级数和”（收敛幂级数）。这种发病率函数的表达式以阿米蒂奇 - 多尔近似作为首个非零项，并明确展示了发病率函数对转变率的依赖性。由此可见，如果转变率不够小（约为10^(-4)/细胞/年），阿米蒂奇 - 多尔近似就不合适。在这些情况下，保留级数中的再多一项会得到更好的近似。通过一个假设的例子对此进行了说明。还讨论了该理论中隐含的其他假设。
