Radiotherapy induced dermatitis is a strong predictor for late fibrosis in head and neck cancer. The development of a predictive model for late fibrosis.

PURPOSE

To determine if the severity of radiodermatitis at the end of radio(chemo)therapy (R(C)T) for head and neck cancer (HNC) is a predictive factor for late fibrosis of the neck and to find a model to predict neck fibrosis grade⩾2 (fibrosis RTOG) at 6months following R(C)T for HNC.

MATERIAL/METHODS: 161 patients were prospectively included. We correlated radiodermatitis at the end of RCT, age, sex, T/N stage, tumor site, concomitant chemotherapy, upfront neck dissection, neo-adjuvant chemotherapy, accelerated RT, smoking, alcohol consumption, HPV status and the dose prescribed to the elective neck with fibrosis RTOG 6months after the end of treatment.

RESULTS

Radiodermatitis at the end of R(C)T ⩾grade 3 proved to be associated with the incidence of fibrosis RTOG at 6months (p<0.01). Furthermore, upfront neck dissection (p<0.01), increasing N stage (p<0.01) and tumor site (p=0.02) are significantly associated in univariate analysis with fibrosis RTOG at 6months of follow-up. Upfront neck dissection and radiodermatitis grade⩾3 at the end of R(C)T were identified by our multivariate model. Additionally, increasing N stage was selected as an independent predictor variable. The AUC for this model was 0.92.

CONCLUSION

A model for the prediction of fibrosis RTOG following R(C)T for head and neck cancer is presented with an AUC of 0.92. Interestingly, radiodermatitis grade⩾3 at the end of R(C)T is associated with RTOG fibrosis at 6months.