Kauffman Mandy, Peck Dannele, Scurlock Brandon, Logan Jim, Robinson Timothy, Cook Walt, Boroff Kari, Schumaker Brant
Department of Veterinary Sciences, 1174 Snowy Range Road, Laramie, WY 82070, United States.
Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wyoming, 1000 E. University Avenue, Laramie, WY 82071, United States.
Prev Vet Med. 2016 Sep 15;132:88-97. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2016.08.004. Epub 2016 Aug 22.
Livestock producers and state wildlife agencies have used multiple management strategies to control bovine brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA). However, spillover from elk to domestic bison and cattle herds continues to occur. Although knowledge is increasing about the location and behavior of elk in the SGYA, predicting spatiotemporal overlap between elk and cattle requires locations of livestock operations and observations of elk contact by producers. We queried all producers in a three-county area using a questionnaire designed to determine location of cattle and whether producers saw elk comingle with their animals. This information was used to parameterize a spatially-explicit risk model to estimate the number of elk expected to overlap with cattle during the brucellosis transmission risk period. Elk-cattle overlap was predicted in areas further from roads and forest boundaries in areas with wolf activity, with higher slopes, lower hunter densities, and where the cost-distance to feedgrounds was very low or very high. The model was used to estimate the expected number of years until a cattle reactor will be detected, under alternative management strategies. The model predicted cattle cases every 4.28 years in the highest risk herd unit, a higher prediction than the one case in 26 years we have observed. This difference likely indicates that ongoing management strategies are at least somewhat effective in preventing potential elk-cattle brucellosis transmission in these areas. Using this model, we can infer the expected effectiveness of various management strategies for reducing the risk of brucellosis spillover from elk to cattle.
牲畜养殖者和州野生动物管理机构已采用多种管理策略来控制大黄石地区（GYA）的牛布鲁氏菌病。然而，从麋鹿传播到家养野牛和牛群的情况仍在继续发生。尽管人们对南大黄石地区（SGYA）麋鹿的位置和行为的了解不断增加，但预测麋鹿与牛的时空重叠需要知道畜牧场的位置以及养殖者对麋鹿与他们的动物接触情况的观察。我们使用一份旨在确定牛群位置以及养殖者是否看到麋鹿与他们的动物混在一起的问卷，对一个三县地区的所有养殖者进行了调查。这些信息被用于参数化一个空间明确的风险模型，以估计在布鲁氏菌病传播风险期内预计与牛重叠的麋鹿数量。在有狼活动、坡度较大、猎人密度较低且到觅食地的成本距离非常低或非常高的地区，预计麋鹿与牛的重叠出现在离道路和森林边界较远的区域。该模型被用于估计在不同管理策略下，直到检测到一头牛感染布鲁氏菌病反应器之前的预期年数。该模型预测，在风险最高的畜群单位中，每4.28年就会出现一例牛感染布鲁氏菌病的情况，这一预测高于我们观察到的26年出现一例的情况。这种差异可能表明，目前的管理策略在预防这些地区潜在的麋鹿 - 牛布鲁氏菌病传播方面至少有一定效果。利用这个模型，我们可以推断出各种管理策略对于降低布鲁氏菌病从麋鹿传播到牛的风险的预期效果。
