Price Stephen J, Garner Trenton W J, Cunningham Andrew A, Langton Tom E S, Nichols Richard A
UCL Genetics Institute, University College London, Darwin Building, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, UK School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, UK
Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, UK.
Proc Biol Sci. 2016 Sep 28;283(1839). doi: 10.1098/rspb.2016.0952.
There have been few reconstructions of wildlife disease emergences, despite their extensive impact on biodiversity and human health. This is in large part attributable to the lack of structured and robust spatio-temporal datasets. We overcame logistical problems of obtaining suitable information by using data from a citizen science project and formulating spatio-temporal models of the spread of a wildlife pathogen (genus Ranavirus, infecting amphibians). We evaluated three main hypotheses for the rapid increase in disease reports in the UK: that outbreaks were being reported more frequently, that climate change had altered the interaction between hosts and a previously widespread pathogen, and that disease was emerging due to spatial spread of a novel pathogen. Our analysis characterized localized spread from nearby ponds, consistent with amphibian dispersal, but also revealed a highly significant trend for elevated rates of additional outbreaks in localities with higher human population density-pointing to human activities in also spreading the virus. Phylogenetic analyses of pathogen genomes support the inference of at least two independent introductions into the UK. Together these results point strongly to humans repeatedly translocating ranaviruses into the UK from other countries and between UK ponds, and therefore suggest potential control measures.
尽管野生动物疾病的出现对生物多样性和人类健康产生了广泛影响，但对其进行的重建却很少。这在很大程度上归因于缺乏结构化且可靠的时空数据集。我们通过使用公民科学项目的数据并构建野生动物病原体（蛙病毒属，感染两栖动物）传播时空模型，克服了获取合适信息的后勤问题。我们评估了英国疾病报告快速增加的三个主要假设：疾病爆发报告得更频繁；气候变化改变了宿主与一种先前广泛存在的病原体之间的相互作用；疾病因新型病原体的空间传播而出现。我们的分析表明疾病从附近池塘呈局部传播，这与两栖动物的扩散一致，但也揭示了在人口密度较高地区额外爆发率升高的极显著趋势——这表明人类活动也在传播病毒。对病原体基因组的系统发育分析支持了至少两次独立引入英国的推断。这些结果共同有力地表明，人类多次将蛙病毒从其他国家引入英国，并在英国的池塘之间传播，因此提出了潜在的控制措施。
