以高分辨率快速刷新预报系统（HWRF）为例，提高美国模式的垂直分辨率以改进飓风“华金”的路径预报。
Increasing vertical resolution in US models to improve track forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin with HWRF as an example.
作者信息
Zhang Banglin, Lindzen Richard S, Tallapragada Vijay, Weng Fuzhong, Liu Qingfu, Sippel Jason A, Ma Zaizhong, Bender Morris A
机构信息
Environmental Modeling Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD 20740; I.M. Systems Group, Inc., College Park, MD 20740;
Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139;
出版信息
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Oct 18;113(42):11765-11769. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1613800113. Epub 2016 Oct 3.
The atmosphere-ocean coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model (HWRF) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as an example to illustrate the impact of model vertical resolution on track forecasts of tropical cyclones. A number of HWRF forecasting experiments were carried out at different vertical resolutions for Hurricane Joaquin, which occurred from September 27 to October 8, 2015, in the Atlantic Basin. The results show that the track prediction for Hurricane Joaquin is much more accurate with higher vertical resolution. The positive impacts of higher vertical resolution on hurricane track forecasts suggest that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NCEP should upgrade both HWRF and the Global Forecast System to have more vertical levels.
美国国家环境预测中心（NCEP）开发的大气-海洋耦合飓风天气研究与预报模式（HWRF）被用作示例，以说明模式垂直分辨率对热带气旋路径预报的影响。针对2015年9月27日至10月8日在大西洋盆地发生的华金飓风，在不同垂直分辨率下开展了多项HWRF预报试验。结果表明，垂直分辨率越高，对华金飓风的路径预报就越准确。更高垂直分辨率对飓风路径预报的积极影响表明，美国国家海洋和大气管理局/国家环境预测中心应升级HWRF和全球预报系统，使其具有更多垂直层次。
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