Trent Lott Geospatial Visualization Research Center, Jackson State University, 1230 Raymond Road, Jackson, MS 39204, USA.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2011 Jun;8(6):2447-69. doi: 10.3390/ijerph8062447. Epub 2011 Jun 23.
The life cycle of Hurricane Katrina (2005) was simulated using three different modeling systems of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. These are, HWRF (Hurricane WRF) designed specifically for hurricane studies and WRF model with two different dynamic cores as the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). The WRF model was developed and sourced from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), incorporating the advances in atmospheric simulation system suitable for a broad range of applications. The HWRF modeling system was developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) based on the NMM dynamic core and the physical parameterization schemes specially designed for tropics. A case study of Hurricane Katrina was chosen as it is one of the intense hurricanes that caused severe destruction along the Gulf Coast from central Florida to Texas. ARW, NMM and HWRF models were designed to have two-way interactive nested domains with 27 and 9 km resolutions. The three different models used in this study were integrated for three days starting from 0000 UTC of 27 August 2005 to capture the landfall of hurricane Katrina on 29 August. The initial and time varying lateral boundary conditions were taken from NCEP global FNL (final analysis) data available at 1 degree resolution for ARW and NMM models and from NCEP GFS data at 0.5 degree resolution for HWRF model. The results show that the models simulated the intensification of Hurricane Katrina and the landfall on 29 August 2005 agreeing with the observations. Results from these experiments highlight the superior performance of HWRF model over ARW and NMM models in predicting the track and intensification of Hurricane Katrina.
利用三种不同的天气研究与预报（WRF）中尺度模型，对 2005 年卡特里娜飓风的生命周期进行了模拟。这三种模型分别是：飓风 WRF（HWRF），专为飓风研究而设计；WRF 模型有两个不同的动力核心，即高级研究 WRF（ARW）模型和非静力中尺度模型（NMM）。WRF 模型由国家大气研究中心（NCAR）开发，该模型结合了适合广泛应用的大气模拟系统的最新技术。HWRF 建模系统由美国国家环境预报中心（NCEP）开发，基于 NMM 动力核心和专门为热带地区设计的物理参数化方案。选择卡特里娜飓风作为案例研究，是因为它是造成佛罗里达州中部到德克萨斯州沿墨西哥湾沿岸严重破坏的强烈飓风之一。ARW、NMM 和 HWRF 模型的设计目的是具有双向交互嵌套域，分辨率分别为 27 和 9 公里。本研究使用的三种不同模型集成了三天的模拟，从 2005 年 8 月 27 日 0000 UTC 开始，以捕捉 8 月 29 日卡特里娜飓风的登陆。初始和时变的水平边界条件取自 NCEP 全球 FNL（最终分析）数据，ARW 和 NMM 模型的分辨率为 1 度，HWRF 模型的分辨率为 0.5 度。结果表明，这些模型模拟了卡特里娜飓风的加强以及 2005 年 8 月 29 日的登陆，与观测结果一致。这些实验的结果突出了 HWRF 模型在预测卡特里娜飓风的轨迹和强度方面优于 ARW 和 NMM 模型。
