Siegel K, Glassman M
Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, Cornell University Medical College, New York, New York.
Arch Sex Behav. 1989 Aug;18(4):335-48. doi: 10.1007/BF01541952.
Until an effective vaccine or treatment for AIDS is developed, the rate of spread of the epidemic will be determined primarily by the willingness of infected and at-risk individuals to refrain from behaviors implicated in the spread of the disease. Consequently, public health efforts have focused on educating these populations about the dangers inherent in certain practices. To date, the impact of these educational activities has been most extensively studied with regard to gay and bisexual men. Researchers, however, seem not always to appreciate the necessity to examine change at two levels of analysis--the individual and the aggregate because it is possible to draw different but valid conclusions about the nature of change, depending upon the level of analysis used. A series of models for examining individual and aggregate level change are described. These models are then used to examine whether there is evidence of change over a 6-month period in the sexual behavior of a sample of gay men from New York City. The data reveal evidence of a significant trend in the direction of safer sexual behavior at both the individual and aggregate level.
在开发出有效的艾滋病疫苗或治疗方法之前，艾滋病疫情的传播速度将主要取决于受感染个体和高危个体是否愿意避免参与那些与疾病传播有关的行为。因此，公共卫生工作主要致力于向这些人群宣传某些行为所固有的危险性。迄今为止，针对男同性恋者和双性恋男性，对这些教育活动的影响进行了最为广泛的研究。然而，研究人员似乎并不总是认识到有必要在两个分析层面——个体层面和总体层面——考察变化情况，因为根据所采用的分析层面不同，有可能就变化的性质得出不同但同样有效的结论。本文描述了一系列用于考察个体层面和总体层面变化的模型。然后运用这些模型来检验纽约市一个男同性恋者样本在6个月期间的性行为是否有变化迹象。数据显示，在个体层面和总体层面都有朝着更安全性行为方向发展的显著趋势。
