Borchers David Louis, Cox Martin James
Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, The Observatory Buchanan Gardens, University of St Andrews, Fife, KY16 9LZ, Scotland.
Australian Antarctic Division, Channel Highway Kingston Tasmania 7050, Australia.
Biometrics. 2017 Jun;73(2):593-602. doi: 10.1111/biom.12581. Epub 2016 Oct 17.
Conventional distance sampling (CDS) methods assume that animals are uniformly distributed in the vicinity of lines or points. But when animals move in response to observers before detection, or when lines or points are not located randomly, this assumption may fail. By formulating distance sampling models as survival models, we show that using time to first detection in addition to perpendicular distance (line transect surveys) or radial distance (point transect surveys) allows estimation of detection probability, and hence density, when animal distribution in the vicinity of lines or points is not uniform and is unknown. We also show that times to detection can provide information about failure of the CDS assumption that detection probability is 1 at distance zero. We obtain a maximum likelihood estimator of line transect survey detection probability and effective strip half-width using times to detection, and we investigate its properties by simulation in situations where animals are nonuniformly distributed and their distribution is unknown. The estimator is found to perform well when detection probability at distance zero is 1. It allows unbiased estimates of density to be obtained in this case from surveys in which there has been responsive movement prior to animals coming within detectable range. When responsive movement continues within detectable range, estimates may be biased but are likely less biased than estimates from methods that assuming no responsive movement. We illustrate by estimating primate density from a line transect survey in which animals are known to avoid the transect line, and a shipboard survey of dolphins that are attracted to it.
传统距离抽样(CDS)方法假定动物在直线或点的附近呈均匀分布。但是,当动物在被发现之前因观察者而移动时,或者当直线或点并非随机定位时,这一假定可能不成立。通过将距离抽样模型构建为生存模型,我们表明,除了垂直距离(线截抽样调查)或径向距离(点截抽样调查)之外,利用首次发现时间能够在直线或点附近动物分布不均匀且未知的情况下估计检测概率,进而估计密度。我们还表明,检测时间能够提供有关CDS假定(即在距离为零时检测概率为1)不成立的信息。我们利用检测时间获得了线截抽样调查检测概率和有效样带半宽度的最大似然估计量,并通过模拟研究了其在动物分布不均匀且未知的情况下的性质。结果发现,当距离为零时的检测概率为1时,该估计量表现良好。在这种情况下,它能够从不均匀分布的动物进入可检测范围之前存在响应性移动的调查中获得无偏密度估计值。当响应性移动在可检测范围内持续时,估计值可能存在偏差,但可能比假定无响应性移动的方法所得到的估计值偏差更小。我们通过从一项已知动物会避开样线的线截抽样调查中估计灵长类动物密度,以及从一项船上对被样线吸引的海豚的调查中进行说明。