Stolen Eric D, Breininger David R, Breininger Daniel J, Breininger Robert D
Herndon Solutions Group, LLC NASA Environmental and Medical Contract, Kennedy Space Center Florida USA.
Department of Mathematics Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne Florida USA.
Ecol Evol. 2024 Mar 24;14(3):e11130. doi: 10.1002/ece3.11130. eCollection 2024 Mar.
Single-visit surveys of plots are often used for estimating the abundance of species of conservation concern. Less-than-perfect availability and detection of individuals can bias estimates if not properly accounted for. We developed field methods and a Bayesian model that accounts for availability and detection bias during single-visit visual plot surveys. We used simulated data to test the accuracy of the method under a realistic range of generating parameters and applied the method to Florida's east coast diamondback terrapin in the Indian River Lagoon system, where they were formerly common but have declined in recent decades. Simulations demonstrated that the method produces unbiased abundance estimates under a wide range of conditions that can be expected to occur in such surveys. Using terrapins as an example we show how to include covariates and random effects to improve estimates and learn about species-habitat relationships. Our method requires only counting individuals during short replicate surveys rather than keeping track of individual identity and is simple to implement in a variety of point count settings when individuals may be temporarily unavailable for observation. We provide examples in R and JAGS for implementing the model and to simulate and evaluate data to validate the application of the method under other study conditions.
对样地进行单次调查常被用于估计受保护物种的数量。如果没有妥善考虑,个体的可得性和可检测性欠佳会使估计产生偏差。我们开发了实地方法和贝叶斯模型,用于在单次视觉样地调查中考虑可得性和检测偏差。我们使用模拟数据,在实际的生成参数范围内测试该方法的准确性,并将该方法应用于印度河泻湖系统中的佛罗里达东海岸菱斑龟,它们曾在此地很常见,但近几十年来数量有所下降。模拟结果表明,该方法在这类调查中预期会出现的广泛条件下,能产生无偏差的数量估计。以菱斑龟为例,我们展示了如何纳入协变量和随机效应来改进估计,并了解物种与栖息地的关系。我们的方法仅要求在短时间重复调查中对个体进行计数,而非追踪个体身份,并且当个体可能暂时无法观察到时,在各种点计数设置中都易于实施。我们提供了在R和JAGS中实现该模型以及模拟和评估数据的示例,以验证该方法在其他研究条件下的应用。