Chai Shauna-Lee, Zhang Jian, Nixon Amy, Nielsen Scott
Ecosystem Management, Alberta Innovates-Technology Futures, Vegreville, Alberta, Canada.
Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
PLoS One. 2016 Oct 21;11(10):e0165292. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0165292. eCollection 2016.
Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta's biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis), tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis), and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula). We characterise giant knotweed as 'extremely invasive', with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is 'extremely invasive' with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is 'highly invasive' with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change.
在入侵物种风险评估中考虑气候变化，有助于我们更好地理解潜在的未来影响，并增强我们对新的非本地物种到来的准备。我们将传统的入侵物种风险评估与栖息地适宜性建模相结合，以评估基于气候变化对生物多样性的风险。我们通过评估15种潜在的新入侵植物物种对加拿大艾伯塔省的风险来展示我们的方法，该地区预计气候变化将促进入侵物种范围向极地扩张。在评估的15个物种中，对艾伯塔省生物多样性构成最大威胁的三种陆生入侵植物物种是虎杖（Fallopia sachalinensis）、柽柳（Tamarix chinensis）和碱紫穗槐（Sphaerophysa salsula）。我们将虎杖归类为“极具入侵性”，在基线气候和未来预测气候之间适宜栖息地增加了21倍。柽柳“极具入侵性”，适宜栖息地增加了64%，碱紫穗槐“高度入侵性”，适宜栖息地增加了21%。我们的方法可用于预测潜在的新入侵物种，并根据其在气候变化背景下对生物多样性的影响进行优先级排序。
