The Safe Yield and Climatic Variability: Implications for Groundwater Management.

Methods for calculating the safe yield are evaluated in this paper using a high-quality and long historical data set of groundwater recharge, discharge, extraction, and precipitation in a karst aquifer. Consideration is given to the role that climatic variability has on the determination of a climatically representative period with which to evaluate the safe yield. The methods employed to estimate the safe yield are consistent with its definition as a long-term average extraction rate that avoids adverse impacts on groundwater. The safe yield is a useful baseline for groundwater planning; yet, it is herein shown that it is not an operational rule that works well under all climatic conditions. This paper shows that due to the nature of dynamic groundwater processes it may be most appropriate to use an adaptive groundwater management strategy that links groundwater extraction rates to groundwater discharge rates, thus achieving a safe yield that represents an estimated long-term sustainable yield. An example of the calculation of the safe yield of the Edwards Aquifer (Texas) demonstrates that it is about one-half of the average annual recharge.