Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran.
Sci Rep. 2021 Oct 25;11(1):21027. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-00500-6.
The worsening water scarcity has imposed a significant stress on food production in many parts of the world. This stress becomes more critical when countries seek self-sufficiency. A literature review shows that food self-sufficiency has not been assessed as the main factor in determining the optimal cultivation patterns. However, food self-sufficiency is one of the main policies of these countries and requires the most attention and concentration. Previous works have focused on the virtual water trade to meet regional food demand and to calculate trade flows. The potential of the trade network can be exploited to improve the cropping pattern to ensure food and water security. To this end, and based on the research gaps mentioned, this study develops a method to link intra-country trade networks, food security, and total water footprints (WFs) to improve food security. The method is applied in Iran, a water-scarce country. The study shows that 781 × 10 m of water could be saved by creating a trade network. Results of the balanced trade network are input to a multi-objective optimization model to improve cropping patterns based on the objectives of achieving food security and preventing water crises. The method provides 400 management scenarios to improve cropping patterns considering 51 main crops in Iran. Results show a range of improvements in food security (19-45%) and a decrease in WFs (2-3%). The selected scenario for Iran would reduce the blue water footprint by 1207 × 10 m, and reduce the cropland area by 19 × 10 ha. This methodology allows decision makers to develop policies that achieve food security under limited water resources in arid and semi-arid regions.
水资源短缺日益严重，给世界许多地区的粮食生产带来了巨大压力。当各国寻求自给自足时，这种压力变得更加严峻。文献回顾表明，粮食自给自足尚未被评估为确定最佳种植模式的主要因素。然而，粮食自给自足是这些国家的主要政策之一，需要最关注和集中精力。以前的工作主要集中在虚拟水贸易上，以满足区域粮食需求和计算贸易流量。贸易网络的潜力可以被利用来改善种植模式，以确保粮食和水安全。为此，根据上述研究差距，本研究开发了一种方法来联系国内贸易网络、粮食安全和总水资源足迹（WFs），以提高粮食安全。该方法在水资源匮乏的伊朗进行了应用。研究表明，通过创建贸易网络，可以节约 781×10^3m 的水。平衡贸易网络的结果被输入到一个多目标优化模型中，以改善种植模式，实现粮食安全和防止水危机的目标。该方法提供了 400 种管理方案，考虑了伊朗的 51 种主要作物，以改善种植模式。结果表明，粮食安全的改善幅度在 19%至 45%之间，水资源足迹减少 2%至 3%。伊朗的选择方案将减少 1207×10^3m 的蓝水资源足迹，并减少 19×10^3ha 的耕地面积。该方法使决策者能够在干旱和半干旱地区水资源有限的情况下制定实现粮食安全的政策。
