Parker Gordon B, Hadzi-Pavlovic Dusan, Graham Rebecca K
School of Psychiatry, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Black Dog Institute, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
School of Psychiatry, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Black Dog Institute, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
J Affect Disord. 2017 Jan 15;208:431-435. doi: 10.1016/j.jad.2016.11.006. Epub 2016 Nov 11.
Studies have established higher rates of hospitalization for mania in spring and summer and posit various explanatory climatic variables. As the earth's climate is changing, we pursue whether this is reflected in the yearly seasonal variation in hospitalizations for mania. This would be indicated by the presence of secular changes in both the hospitalization seasonal pattern and climatic variables, and associations between both variable sets.
Data were obtained for 21,882 individuals hospitalized to psychiatric hospitals in the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW) over a 14-year period (2000-2014) with ICD-diagnosed mania - and with NSW population figures and salient climatic variables collected for the same period. Regression analyses were conducted to examine the predictive value of climate variables on hospital admissions.
Data quantified a peak for manic admissions in spring of the southern hemisphere, in the months of October and November. There was a significant linear increase in manic admissions (0.5%/year) over the 14-year time period, with significant variation across years. In terms of climatic variables, there was a significant linear trend over the interval for solar radiation, although the trend indicated a decrease rather than an increase. Seasonal variation in admissions was most closely associated with two climate variables - evaporation in the current month and temperature in the previous month.
Hospitalization rates do not necessarily provide an accurate estimate of the onset of manic episodes and findings may be limited to the southern hemisphere, or New South Wales.
While overall findings do not support the hypothesis that climate change is leading to a higher seasonal impact for manic hospital admissions in the southern hemisphere, analyses identified two climate/weather variables - evaporation and temperature - that may account for the yearly spring excess.
研究表明，春季和夏季躁狂症的住院率较高，并提出了各种解释性气候变量。随着地球气候的变化，我们探究这是否反映在躁狂症住院的年度季节性变化中。这将通过住院季节性模式和气候变量的长期变化以及两个变量集之间的关联来表明。
获取了澳大利亚新南威尔士州（NSW）14年期间（2000 - 2014年）因国际疾病分类（ICD）诊断为躁狂症而住院的21882名患者的数据，以及同期新南威尔士州的人口数据和主要气候变量。进行回归分析以检验气候变量对住院人数的预测价值。
数据量化了南半球春季（10月和11月）躁狂症住院人数的峰值。在14年期间，躁狂症住院人数有显著的线性增长（每年0.5%），且各年存在显著差异。就气候变量而言，在该时间段内太阳辐射有显著的线性趋势，尽管趋势显示为下降而非上升。住院人数的季节性变化与两个气候变量最为密切相关——当月的蒸发量和上月的温度。
住院率不一定能准确估计躁狂发作的起始情况，且研究结果可能仅限于南半球或新南威尔士州。
虽然总体研究结果不支持气候变化导致南半球躁狂症住院的季节性影响增加这一假设，但分析确定了两个气候/天气变量——蒸发量和温度——可能是每年春季住院人数过多的原因。
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