Sun Ou, Liu Zhixin
School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, China.
PLoS One. 2016 Nov 16;11(11):e0166526. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0166526. eCollection 2016.
We examine the different effects of monetary policy actions and central bank communication on China's stock market bubbles with a Time-varying Parameter SVAR model. We find that with negative responses of fundamental component and positive responses of bubble component of asset prices, contractionary monetary policy induces the observed stock prices to rise during periods of large bubbles. By contrast, central bank communication acts on the market through expectation guidance and has more significant effects on stock prices in the long run, which implies that central bank communication be used as an effective long-term instrument for the central bank's policymaking.
我们使用时变参数结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,研究货币政策行动和央行沟通对中国股票市场泡沫的不同影响。我们发现,由于资产价格基本面成分的负向反应和泡沫成分的正向反应,紧缩性货币政策在大泡沫时期会导致观察到的股票价格上涨。相比之下,央行沟通通过预期引导作用于市场,从长期来看对股票价格有更显著的影响,这意味着央行沟通可作为央行政策制定的有效长期工具。