Yang Z M
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 1989 Feb;10(1):40-3.
This paper advances an ameliorative catalytic model to imitate age-specific prevalence rates for leprosy by using microcomputer for eight prefectures in Jiangsu province with analyses of results. The author considers that the distribution of age-specific prevalence of leprosy tallies with the ameliorative catalytic model. It is a curve of S shape which slowly goes up at beginning then faster rising and reaching a plateau after the point of peak. The curve is reflected in characteristics with a longer latent period, longer course of the disease and lower incidence. Through analysing and comparing the practical leprosy prevalence in eight prefectures with three parameters of the catalytic model, it is obviously that the prevalence was positive correlation with parameter a and negative correlation to parameter b, k. Therefore parameters--a, b, k in the two-stage catalytic model respectively represents the force of infection, the speed of eliminating the disease and an indicator of the effect of control disease. Catalytic models may be used to simulate and analyse the disease data in various periods, regions or masses for comprehensive evaluation of the force of infection, ability to eliminating disease in a population and the effect of control programme.
本文提出了一种改进的催化模型，利用微型计算机对江苏省8个地区的麻风病年龄别患病率进行模拟，并对结果进行分析。作者认为，麻风病年龄别患病率的分布符合改进的催化模型。它是一条S形曲线，开始时上升缓慢，然后上升较快，在峰值点之后达到平稳。该曲线反映了潜伏期较长、病程较长和发病率较低的特点。通过对8个地区实际麻风病患病率与催化模型的3个参数进行分析比较，明显看出患病率与参数a呈正相关，与参数b、k呈负相关。因此，两阶段催化模型中的参数a、b、k分别代表感染力、疾病消除速度和疾病控制效果指标。催化模型可用于模拟和分析不同时期、地区或人群的疾病数据，以综合评估人群中的感染力、疾病消除能力和控制项目的效果。
