Leles Suzana G, Valentin Jean L, Figueiredo Gisela M
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia, Departamento de Biologia Marinha, Instituto de Biologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Av. Prof. Rodolpho Rocco, 211, 21941-902 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Departamento de Biologia Marinha, Instituto de Biologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Av. Prof. Rodolpho Rocco, 211, 21941-902 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
An Acad Bras Cienc. 2016;88(3 Suppl):1971-1991. doi: 10.1590/0001-3765201620150588. Epub 2016 Oct 24.
Planktonic models represent a powerful tool for creating hypotheses and making predictions about the functioning of marine ecosystems. Their complexity varies according to the number of state variables and the choice of functional forms. We evaluated plankton models during the last 15 years (n =145) with the aims of understanding why they differ in complexity, evaluating model robustness, and describing studies of plankton modelling around the globe. We classified models into four groups: Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton (NPZ), Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD), Size-Structured (SS) and Plankton-Functional-Type (PFT). Our results revealed that the number of state variables varied according to the question being addressed: NPZ models were more frequently applied in physical-biological studies, while PFT models were more applied for investigating biogeochemical cycles. Most models were based on simple functional forms which neglect important feedback related to control of plankton dynamics. Modelling studies sometimes failed to describe sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation. The importance of testing different functional forms was commonly overlooked, and the lack of empirical data affected the verification of model robustness. Lastly, we highlight the need to develop modelling studies in the Southern Hemisphere, including Brazil, in order to provide predictions that assist the management of marine ecosystems.
浮游生物模型是创建关于海洋生态系统功能的假设和进行预测的有力工具。其复杂性因状态变量的数量和功能形式的选择而异。我们评估了过去15年中的浮游生物模型（n = 145），目的是了解它们在复杂性上为何不同、评估模型的稳健性，并描述全球范围内浮游生物建模的研究。我们将模型分为四类：营养物-浮游植物-浮游动物（NPZ）、营养物-浮游植物-浮游动物-碎屑（NPZD）、大小结构（SS）和浮游生物功能类型（PFT）。我们的结果表明，状态变量的数量因所解决的问题而异：NPZ模型在物理-生物学研究中应用更为频繁，而PFT模型更多地用于研究生物地球化学循环。大多数模型基于简单的功能形式，忽略了与浮游生物动态控制相关的重要反馈。建模研究有时未能描述敏感性分析、校准和验证。测试不同功能形式的重要性通常被忽视，并且缺乏经验数据影响了模型稳健性的验证。最后，我们强调需要在包括巴西在内的南半球开展建模研究，以便提供有助于海洋生态系统管理的预测。
