van Kooten G Cornelis, Duan Jun, Lynch Rachel
Department of Economics. University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada.
PLoS One. 2016 Nov 30;11(11):e0165822. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0165822. eCollection 2016.
This paper explores the viability of relying on wind power to replace upwards of 60% of electricity generation in Alberta that would be lost if coal-fired generation is phased out. Using hourly wind data from 17 locations across Alberta, we are able to simulate the potential wind power output available to the Alberta grid when modern, 3.5 MW-capacity wind turbines are spread across the province. Using wind regimes for the years 2006 through 2015, we find that available wind power is less than 60% of installed capacity 98% of the time, and below 30% of capacity 74% of the time. There is only a small amount of correlation between wind speeds at different locations, but yet it remains necessary to rely on fossil fuel generation. Then, based on the results from a grid allocation model, we find that CO2 emissions can be reduced by about 30%, but only through a combination of investment in wind energy and reliance on purchases of hydropower from British Columbia. Only if nuclear energy is permitted into the generation mix would Alberta be able to meet its CO2-emissions reduction target in the electricity sector. With nuclear power, emissions can be reduced by upwards of 85%.
本文探讨了依靠风力发电来取代艾伯塔省超过60%的发电量的可行性,若逐步淘汰燃煤发电,这些电量将会损失。利用艾伯塔省17个地点的每小时风力数据,我们能够模拟当现代的3.5兆瓦容量风力涡轮机遍布全省时,艾伯塔电网可获得的潜在风力发电量。利用2006年至2015年的风况,我们发现98%的时间里,可用风力发电量低于装机容量的60%,74%的时间里低于装机容量的30%。不同地点的风速之间只有少量相关性,但仍有必要依赖化石燃料发电。然后,基于电网分配模型的结果,我们发现二氧化碳排放量可减少约30%,但这只有通过投资风能和依赖从不列颠哥伦比亚省购买水电才能实现。只有允许核能进入发电组合,艾伯塔省才能实现其电力部门的二氧化碳减排目标。有了核能,排放量可减少超过85%。