Curran-Everett Douglas
Division of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, National Jewish Health, Denver, Colorado; and Department of Biostatistics and Informatics, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, Colorado
J Appl Physiol (1985). 2017 Jan 1;122(1):91-95. doi: 10.1152/japplphysiol.00937.2016. Epub 2016 Dec 1.
Statistics is essential to the process of scientific discovery. An inescapable tenet of statistics, however, is the notion of uncertainty which has reared its head within the arena of reproducibility of research. The Journal of Applied Physiology's recent initiative, "Cores of Reproducibility in Physiology," is designed to improve the reproducibility of research: each article is designed to elucidate the principles and nuances of using some piece of scientific equipment or some experimental technique so that other researchers can obtain reproducible results. But other researchers can use some piece of equipment or some technique with expert skill and still fail to replicate an experimental result if they neglect to consider the fundamental concepts of statistics of hypothesis testing and estimation and their inescapable connection to the reproducibility of research. If we want to improve the reproducibility of our research, then we want to minimize the chance that we get a false positive and-at the same time-we want to minimize the chance that we get a false negative. In this review I outline strategies to accomplish each of these things. These strategies are related intimately to fundamental concepts of statistics and the inherent uncertainty embedded in them.
统计学对于科学发现过程至关重要。然而,统计学中一个不可避免的原则是不确定性的概念,它在研究的可重复性领域中已经出现。《应用生理学杂志》最近发起的“生理学可重复性核心”倡议旨在提高研究的可重复性:每篇文章都旨在阐明使用某种科学设备或某种实验技术的原理和细微差别,以便其他研究人员能够获得可重复的结果。但是,如果其他研究人员在使用某种设备或某种技术时忽略了假设检验和估计的统计学基本概念以及它们与研究可重复性的必然联系,即使他们具备专业技能,仍可能无法复制实验结果。如果我们想要提高研究的可重复性,那么我们希望将出现假阳性的可能性降至最低,同时,我们也希望将出现假阴性的可能性降至最低。在这篇综述中,我概述了实现上述每一点的策略。这些策略与统计学的基本概念以及其中固有的不确定性密切相关。