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澳大利亚癌症导致过早死亡的生产力成本:来自微观模拟模型的证据。

The Productivity Costs of Premature Mortality Due to Cancer in Australia: Evidence from a Microsimulation Model.

作者信息

Carter Hannah E, Schofield Deborah J, Shrestha Rupendra

机构信息

Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2016 Dec 12;11(12):e0167521. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0167521. eCollection 2016.


DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0167521
PMID:27942032
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5152930/
Abstract

AIM: To estimate the productivity costs of premature mortality due to cancer in Australia, in aggregate and for the 26 most prevalent cancer sites. METHODS: A human capital approach was adopted to estimate the long term impacts of Australian cancer deaths in 2003. Using population mortality data, the labour force participation and the present value of lifetime income (PVLI) forgone due to premature mortality was estimated based on individual characteristics at the time of death including age, sex and socioeconomic status. Outcomes were modelled to the year 2030 using economic data from a national microsimulation model. A discount rate of 3% was applied and costs were reported in 2016 Australian dollars. RESULTS: Premature deaths from cancer in 2003 resulted in 88,000 working years lost and a cost of $4.2 billion in the PVLI forgone. Costs were close to three times higher in males than females due to the higher number of premature deaths in men, combined with higher levels of workforce participation and income. Lung, colorectal and brain cancers accounted for the highest proportion of costs, while testicular cancer was the most costly cancer site per death. CONCLUSIONS: The productivity costs of premature mortality due to cancer are significant. These results provide an economic measure of the cancer burden which may assist decision makers in allocating scare resources amongst competing priorities.

摘要

目的:总体估算以及针对26个最常见癌症部位,估算澳大利亚因癌症导致过早死亡的生产力成本。 方法:采用人力资本法估算2003年澳大利亚癌症死亡的长期影响。利用人口死亡率数据,根据死亡时的个人特征(包括年龄、性别和社会经济地位)估算因过早死亡而损失的劳动力参与率和终身收入现值(PVLI)。使用来自国家微观模拟模型的经济数据,将结果模拟到2030年。应用3%的贴现率,并以2016年澳元报告成本。 结果:2003年癌症过早死亡导致8.8万个工作年损失,PVLI损失成本为42亿澳元。由于男性过早死亡人数较多,再加上劳动力参与率和收入水平较高,男性的成本比女性高出近三倍。肺癌、结直肠癌和脑癌占成本的比例最高,而睾丸癌是每例死亡成本最高的癌症部位。 结论:癌症导致过早死亡的生产力成本巨大。这些结果提供了癌症负担的经济衡量标准,可能有助于决策者在相互竞争的优先事项中分配稀缺资源。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/301a/5152930/8fbca747e5fb/pone.0167521.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/301a/5152930/2b31ece9353d/pone.0167521.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/301a/5152930/df7235fe27cb/pone.0167521.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/301a/5152930/8fbca747e5fb/pone.0167521.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/301a/5152930/2b31ece9353d/pone.0167521.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/301a/5152930/df7235fe27cb/pone.0167521.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/301a/5152930/8fbca747e5fb/pone.0167521.g003.jpg

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本文引用的文献

[1]
The long-term productivity impacts of all cause premature mortality in Australia.

Aust N Z J Public Health. 2016-11-20

[2]
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The cost of lost productivity due to premature cancer-related mortality: an economic measure of the cancer burden.

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Soc Sci Med. 2010-11-18

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