Thorndahl Søren, Nielsen Jesper Ellerbæk, Jensen David Getreuer
Department of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Thomas Manns Vej 23, Aalborg Ø 9200, Denmark E-mail:
Envidan, Vejlsøvej 23, Silkeborg 8600, Denmark.
Water Sci Technol. 2016 Dec;74(11):2599-2610. doi: 10.2166/wst.2016.474.
Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events - especially in the future climate - it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically, both historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper, radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0-2 h leadtime, and numerical weather models with leadtimes up to 24 h are used as inputs to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on the small town of Lystrup in Denmark, which was flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps in real-time with high resolution radar rainfall data, but rather limited forecast performance in predicting floods with leadtimes more than half an hour.
高强度局部降雨和排水系统能力超标所引发的洪水，会对城市造成严重影响。为了让城市做好应对这类洪水事件的准备——尤其是在未来气候条件下——能够对这些事件进行历史和实时的数值模拟很有价值。城市洪水的实时预测存在一种尚未充分检验的潜力。在本文中，具有不同空间和时间分辨率的雷达数据观测、提前0 - 2小时的雷达临近预报以及提前24小时的数值天气模型，被用作综合洪水与排水系统模型的输入，以研究不同输入在预测未来洪水方面的相对差异。该系统在丹麦的利斯特鲁普小镇进行了测试，该镇在2012年和2014年遭受过洪水。结果表明，利用高分辨率雷达降雨数据能够实时生成详细的洪水地图，但在预测提前半小时以上的洪水时，预报性能相当有限。
