集合雷达临近预报和 COSMO-DE-EPS 进行城市洪水管理。

Ensembles of radar nowcasts and COSMO-DE-EPS for urban flood management.

机构信息

hydro & meteo GmbH & Co. KG, Breite Str. 6-8, Lübeck D-23552, Germany E-mail:

Institute of River and Coastal Engineering, Hamburg University of Technology, Hamburg, Germany.

出版信息

Water Sci Technol. 2017 Apr;2017(1):27-35. doi: 10.2166/wst.2018.079.

DOI:10.2166/wst.2018.079

PMID:29698218

Abstract

Sophisticated strategies are required for flood warning in urban areas regarding convective heavy rainfall events. An approach is presented to improve short-term precipitation forecasts by combining ensembles of radar nowcasts with the high-resolution numerical weather predictions COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Weather Service. The combined ensemble forecasts are evaluated and compared to deterministic precipitation forecasts of COSMO-DE. The results show a significantly improved quality of the short-term precipitation forecasts and great potential to improve flood warnings for urban catchments. The combined ensemble forecasts are produced operationally every 5 min. Applications involve the Flood Warning Service Hamburg (WaBiHa) and real-time hydrological simulations with the model KalypsoHydrology.

摘要

针对城市对流暴雨事件，需要采用复杂的策略来进行洪水预警。本文提出了一种方法，通过将雷达临近预报的集合与德国气象局的高分辨率数值天气预报 COSMO-DE-EPS 相结合，来改进短期降水预报。对组合集合预报进行了评估，并与 COSMO-DE 的确定性降水预报进行了比较。结果表明，短期降水预报的质量得到了显著提高，并且有很大的潜力可以改进城市流域的洪水预警。组合集合预报每 5 分钟生成一次，并投入业务使用。该方法的应用涉及汉堡洪水预警服务（WaBiHa）和使用 KalypsoHydrology 模型进行实时水文模拟。