Pouls Claudia, Jeandarme Inge
OPZC Rekem, Knowledge Centre Forensic Psychiatric Care (KeFor), Rekem, Belgium.
J Appl Res Intellect Disabil. 2018 Mar;31(2):e265-e271. doi: 10.1111/jar.12315. Epub 2016 Dec 19.
One of the most extensively tested risk assessment instruments in offenders with an intellectual disability (OIDs) is the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG). The purpose of this prospective study was to test the ability of this instrument to predict institutional aggression in OIDs.
VRAG scores were collected for 52 OIDs, and staff registered aggressive incidents during a period of 6 months. Predictive accuracy was analysed using several performance indicators.
The VRAG was not able to significantly predict aggressive behaviour, although a trend towards significance was found for interpersonal physical aggression. Furthermore, the VRAG was only accurate in prospectively identifying low-risk individuals.
Compared to other studies, demonstrating good predictive validity for institutional aggression in OIDs, the VRAG performed poorly in this study. The usefulness of this instrument in identifying high-risk offenders is questioned. Until further evidence is available from studies using multiple performance indicators, clinicians have to be very careful in relying on the results of a risk assessment tool.
暴力风险评估指南（VRAG）是针对智力残疾罪犯（OIDs）进行过最广泛测试的风险评估工具之一。这项前瞻性研究的目的是测试该工具预测OIDs机构内攻击行为的能力。
收集了52名OIDs的VRAG分数，工作人员记录了6个月期间的攻击事件。使用多种性能指标分析预测准确性。
VRAG无法显著预测攻击行为，尽管人际身体攻击存在显著趋势。此外，VRAG仅能准确前瞻性识别低风险个体。
与其他显示对OIDs机构内攻击行为具有良好预测效度的研究相比，VRAG在本研究中表现不佳。该工具在识别高风险罪犯方面的实用性受到质疑。在有使用多种性能指标的研究提供进一步证据之前，临床医生在依赖风险评估工具的结果时必须非常谨慎。
