Xu Fei, Liu Guanhua, Si Yali
Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Jiangxi Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve Authority, Jiangxi Poyang Lake Wetland Ecosystem National Research Station, Nanchang, China.
Integr Zool. 2017 Jul;12(4):303-317. doi: 10.1111/1749-4877.12248.
Temperature is a critical factor influencing avian phenology, due to its direct impact on food and water availability. Most previous studies have focused on the timing of spring migration and the arrival of birds at breeding grounds along the European and American flyways; little is known about migration ecology at the wintering sites along the Asian flyways. Using linear regression models, this study investigates how local temperature variation and EI Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the arrival and departure timing of 9 waterbird species breeding in Mongolia or Siberia and overwintering in Poyang, China from 2002 to 2013. Birds mainly arrive at Poyang in October and depart for their breeding sites in March. Out of the 9 species, 6 show a strong negative relationship between departure time and overwintering temperature in Poyang. Departure dates also show a negative association with overwintering ENSO and March ENSO for two species. Both local and large-scale climate indices show no influence on the arrival timing of waterbirds. We suggest that birds react to the annual variation of overwintering temperature: an earlier departure of waterbirds is facilitated by a warmer overwintering period and vice versa. The long-term accumulated temperature effect is more pronounced than ENSO and the short-term local temperature effect. Our findings could help quantify the potential impact of global warming on waterbirds.
温度是影响鸟类物候的关键因素，因为它直接影响食物和水的可获得性。以往大多数研究都集中在春季迁徙的时间以及鸟类沿着欧美迁徙路线到达繁殖地的情况；对于亚洲迁徙路线上越冬地的迁徙生态却知之甚少。本研究使用线性回归模型，调查了2002年至2013年期间，当地温度变化和厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）如何影响在蒙古或西伯利亚繁殖、在中国鄱阳湖越冬的9种水鸟的到达和离开时间。鸟类主要在10月抵达鄱阳湖，并在3月启程前往繁殖地。在这9个物种中，有6种的离开时间与鄱阳湖的越冬温度呈强烈负相关。对于其中两个物种，离开日期也与越冬ENSO和3月的ENSO呈负相关。当地和大规模气候指数对水鸟的到达时间均无影响。我们认为鸟类会对越冬温度的年度变化做出反应：越冬期温暖会促使水鸟更早离开，反之亦然。长期累积的温度效应比ENSO和短期的当地温度效应更为显著。我们的研究结果有助于量化全球变暖对水鸟的潜在影响。
