Yin Honglei, Xu Lin, Shao Yechang, Li Liping, Wan Chengsong
Department of Psychiatry, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China; School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.
Department of Finance, School of Economics and Commerce, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.
Neuropsychiatr Dis Treat. 2016 Dec 8;12:3119-3128. doi: 10.2147/NDT.S116148. eCollection 2016.
The objective of this study was to estimate the features of suicide rate and its association with economic development and stock market during the past decade in the People's Republic of China.
Official data were gathered and analyzed in the People's Republic of China during the period 2004-2013. Nationwide suicide rate was stratified by four year age-groups, sex, urban/rural areas, and regions (East, Central, and West). Annual economic indexes including gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and rural and urban income per capita were all adjusted for inflation. Variation coefficient of market index (VCMI) was also included as an economic index to measure the fluctuation of the stock market. Negative binomial regression was performed to examine the time trend of region-level suicide rates and effects of sex, age, urban/rural area, region, and economic index on the suicide rates.
Suicide rates of each age-group, sex, urban/rural area, and region were generally decreased from 2004 to 2013, while annual GDP per capita and rural and urban income per capita were generally increased by year. VCMI fluctuated largely, which peaked around 2009 and decreased after that time. Negative binomial regression showed that the decreased suicide rate in East and Central rural areas was the main cause of the decrease in suicide rate in the People's Republic of China. Suicide rate in the People's Republic of China for the study period increased with age and was higher in rural than in urban area, higher in males than in females, and the highest in the Central region. When GDP per capita increased by 2,787 RMB, the suicide rate decreased by 0.498 times. VCMI showed no significant relationship with suicide rate in the negative binomial regression.
Suicide rate decreased in 2004-2013; varied among different age-groups, sex, urban/rural areas, and regions; and was negatively associated with the economic growth in the People's Republic of China. Stock market showed no relationship with suicide rate, but this finding needs to be verified in a future study.
本研究旨在评估中华人民共和国过去十年间的自杀率特征及其与经济发展和股票市场的关联。
收集并分析了2004年至2013年期间中华人民共和国的官方数据。全国自杀率按四岁年龄组、性别、城乡地区以及区域（东部、中部和西部）进行分层。年度经济指标包括人均国内生产总值（GDP）以及城乡人均收入均进行了通货膨胀调整。市场指数变异系数（VCMI）也作为一项经济指标纳入，以衡量股票市场的波动。采用负二项回归分析来检验地区层面自杀率的时间趋势以及性别、年龄、城乡地区、区域和经济指标对自杀率的影响。
2004年至2013年期间，各年龄组、性别、城乡地区和区域的自杀率总体呈下降趋势，而人均年度GDP以及城乡人均收入总体逐年上升。VCMI波动较大，在2009年左右达到峰值，之后下降。负二项回归显示，东部和中部农村地区自杀率的下降是中华人民共和国自杀率下降的主要原因。研究期间，中华人民共和国的自杀率随年龄增长而上升，农村高于城市，男性高于女性，中部地区最高。人均GDP每增加2787元，自杀率下降0.498倍。在负二项回归中，VCMI与自杀率无显著关系。
2004年至2013年自杀率下降；在不同年龄组、性别、城乡地区和区域存在差异；且与中华人民共和国的经济增长呈负相关。股票市场与自杀率无关联，但这一发现有待未来研究验证。
