Centre for Environment and Population Health, Griffith University, Australia; School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, China.
Centre for Environment and Population Health, Griffith University, Australia.
Sci Total Environ. 2017 Feb 15;580:805-812. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.12.027. Epub 2016 Dec 21.
The association between heavy rainfall and infectious intestinal diseases (IID) has not been well described and little research has been conducted in developing countries. This study examines the association between heavy rainfall and hospital admissions for IID in Ho Chi Minh City, the most populous city in Vietnam. An interrupted time-series method was used to examine the effect of each individual heavy rainfall event (HRE) on IID. The percentage changes in post-HRE level and trends of IID were estimated for 30days following each HRE. Then a random-effect meta-analysis was used to quantify the pooled estimate of effect sizes of all HREs on IID. The pooled estimates were calculated over a 21day lag period. The effects of a HRE on IID varied across individual HREs. The pooled estimates indicate that the levels of IID following a HRE increased from 7.3% to 13.5% for lags from 0 to 21days, however statistically significant increases were only observed for lags from 4 to 6days (13.5%, 95%CI: 1.4-25.4; 13.3%, 95%CI: 1.5-25.0; and 12.9%, 95%CI: 1.6-24.1 respectively). An average decrease of 0.11% (95%CI: -0.55-0.33) per day was observed for the post-HRE trend. This finding has important implications for the projected impacts on residents living in this city which is highly vulnerable to increased heavy rainfall associated with climate change. Adaptation and intervention programs should be developed to prevent this additional burden of disease and to protect residents from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events.
强降雨与感染性肠道疾病（IID）之间的关联尚未得到很好的描述，发展中国家的相关研究较少。本研究考察了强降雨与越南人口最多的城市胡志明市IID 住院之间的关联。采用中断时间序列法研究了每次强降雨事件（HRE）对 IID 的影响。在每次 HRE 后 30 天内，估计了 HRE 后水平和 IID 趋势的百分比变化。然后使用随机效应荟萃分析来量化所有 HRE 对 IID 的合并效应大小的估计值。汇总估计值是在 21 天的滞后期内计算的。HRE 对 IID 的影响因个别 HRE 而异。汇总估计值表明，在 0 至 21 天的滞后期内，IID 水平在 HRE 后增加了 7.3%至 13.5%，但仅在 4 至 6 天的滞后期内观察到统计学显著增加（13.5%，95%CI：1.4-25.4；13.3%，95%CI：1.5-25.0；和 12.9%，95%CI：1.6-24.1）。HRE 后趋势观察到平均每天下降 0.11%（95%CI：-0.55-0.33）。这一发现对居住在这个高度易受气候变化相关强降雨影响的城市的居民的预期影响具有重要意义。应制定适应和干预计划，以防止这种疾病负担的增加，并保护居民免受极端天气事件的不利影响。
