Genetic patterns across an invasion's history: a test of change versus stasis for the Eurasian round goby in North America.

Biological invasions comprise accidental evolutionary experiments, whose genetic compositions underlie relative success, spread and persistence in new habitats. However, little is known about whether, or how, their population genetic patterns change temporally and/or spatially across the invasion's history. Theory predicts that most would undergo founder effect, exhibit low genetic divergence across the new range and gain variation over time via new arriving propagules. To test these predictions, we analyse population genetic diversity and divergence patterns of the Eurasian round goby Neogobius melanostomus across the two decades of its North American invasion in the Laurentian Great Lakes, comparing results from 13 nuclear DNA microsatellite loci and mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b sequences. We test whether 'genetic stasis', 'genetic replacement' and/or 'genetic supplement' scenarios have occurred at the invasion's core and expansion sites, in comparison with its primary native source population in the Dnieper River, Black Sea. Results reveal pronounced genetic divergence across the exotic range, with population areas remaining genetically distinct and statistically consistent across two decades, supporting 'genetic stasis' and 'founder takes most'. The original genotypes continue to predominate, whose high population growth likely outpaced the relative success of later arrivals. The original invasion core has stayed the most similar to the native source. Secondary expansion sites indicate slight allelic composition convergence towards the core population over time, attributable to some early 'genetic supplementation'. The geographic and temporal coverage of this investigation offers a rare opportunity to discern population dynamics over time and space in context of invasion genetic theory vs. reality.