Amole T A, Zijlstra M, Descheemaeker K, Ayantunde A A, Duncan A J
1International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI),01 BP 1496 Ouagadougou 01,Burkina Faso.
2Plant Production Systems,Wageningen University,P.O. Box 430,6700 AK Wageningen,The Netherlands.
Animal. 2017 May;11(5):881-889. doi: 10.1017/S1751731116002676. Epub 2016 Dec 29.
Evaluation of lifetime productivity of individual animals in response to various interventions allows assessment of long-term investment opportunities for farmers. In order to gain a better understanding of promising feed interventions for improvement of small ruminant production in Southwestern Nigeria, a dynamic modelling approach was used to explore the effect of different feeding strategies on the lifetime productivity of West African Dwarf (WAD) goats. Modifications were made to the current version of Livestock Simulator developed for cattle production to simulate goat production systems particularly for WAD goats. Effects of changes in input parameters (quality of feed and potential adult weight) confirmed the sensitivity of the modelled weight development and reproductive performance. The values of simulated model outputs corresponded well with observed values for most of the variables, except for the pre-weaning mortality rate in the cut-and-carry system where a wide discrepancy between simulated (2.1%) and observed (23%) data was found. The scenario analysis showed that simulated goats in the free grazing system attained sexual maturity and kidded much later than those in the grazing with supplementation and the cut-and-carry systems. The simulated results suggested that goats require supplementation with protein and energy sources, in order to promote lifetime productivity, early sexual maturity and higher birth weight. In terms of economic returns based on feed cost alone, the moderately intense system produced the most profit. We therefore conclude that grazing with adequate supplementation using farm-generated feed resources offers an opportunity for improving smallholder goat production systems in West Africa.
评估个体动物在各种干预措施下的终生生产力，有助于评估农民的长期投资机会。为了更好地了解有望改善尼日利亚西南部小型反刍动物生产的饲料干预措施，采用动态建模方法来探究不同饲养策略对西非矮山羊（WAD）终生生产力的影响。对为牛生产开发的当前版本的家畜模拟器进行了修改，以模拟山羊生产系统，特别是针对WAD山羊的系统。输入参数（饲料质量和潜在成年体重）的变化影响证实了模型化体重发育和繁殖性能的敏感性。除了在割草并搬运系统中的断奶前死亡率外，模拟模型输出值与大多数变量的观测值吻合良好，在该系统中，模拟数据（2.1%）与观测数据（23%）之间存在很大差异。情景分析表明，自由放牧系统中的模拟山羊达到性成熟和产仔的时间比补饲放牧和割草并搬运系统中的山羊晚得多。模拟结果表明，山羊需要补充蛋白质和能量来源，以提高终生生产力、促进性早熟和增加出生体重。仅基于饲料成本的经济回报而言，中等强度系统产生的利润最高。因此，我们得出结论，利用农场自产饲料资源进行充分补饲放牧，为改善西非小农户山羊生产系统提供了机会。
