Groenewold W G F George, de Beer J A A Joop, de Valk H A G Helga
Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI/KNAW/RUG), Lange Houtstraat 19, 2511 CV The Hague, The Netherlands.
Genus. 2016;72(1):8. doi: 10.1186/s41118-016-0015-x. Epub 2016 Dec 2.
Gaining control over refugee flows and undocumented migrants currently dominate the media and political arenas in Europe. Underlying driving and enduring forces, such as employment-related migration pressure, tend to be relegated to the background. In this article, we explore migration pressure prospects up to 2035 in four countries with a tradition of emigration to Europe: Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey. More specifically, we first derive a simple decomposition model based on the relationship between working-age population (WAP) growth and growth of gross domestic production (GDP) and worker productivity (GDP/). From this model, we derive an indicator of migration pressure: size of the non-employed population in a country. This model is then used as framework for deriving storylines for three different scenarios of economic and demographic change up to 2035. Subsequently, storylines are operationalized, leading to scenario estimates of migration pressure up to 2035. The implications of the results are then discussed. Time series of macro-level economic and demographic data are used to underpin scenario assumptions. Scenario results suggest that in all countries employment ratios are expected to increase, but only in Tunisia is the size of the non-employed population-our indicator of migration pressure-expected to decline, irrespective of the scenario. Depending on the scenario, migration pressure remains high in Turkey and Morocco and may even become somewhat higher. The general conclusion is that in the long term, after 2035, labour migration pressure can be expected to decrease because the growth and size of the working-age population is decreasing while employment ratios are rising.
对难民潮和无证移民的管控目前在欧洲媒体和政治舞台上占据主导地位。一些潜在的驱动因素和持久因素，比如与就业相关的移民压力，往往被置于次要地位。在本文中，我们探讨了阿尔及利亚、摩洛哥、突尼斯和土耳其这四个有向欧洲移民传统的国家到2035年的移民压力前景。更具体地说，我们首先基于劳动年龄人口（WAP）增长与国内生产总值（GDP）增长以及劳动生产率（GDP/）之间的关系推导出一个简单的分解模型。从这个模型中，我们得出一个移民压力指标：一个国家非就业人口的规模。然后，这个模型被用作框架，以推导到2035年三种不同经济和人口变化情景的故事情节。随后，将故事情节付诸实施，得出到2035年移民压力的情景估计。接着讨论结果的影响。宏观层面的经济和人口数据的时间序列被用来支撑情景假设。情景结果表明，所有国家的就业率预计都会上升，但只有突尼斯的非就业人口规模（我们的移民压力指标）预计会下降，无论哪种情景都是如此。根据不同情景，土耳其和摩洛哥的移民压力仍然很高，甚至可能会有所上升。总体结论是，从长期来看，2035年之后，由于劳动年龄人口的增长和规模在下降，而就业率在上升，预计劳动力移民压力将会降低。
