Water Futures, NSW, Australia.
Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith School of Environment, Griffith University, QLD, Australia.
Water Res. 2017 Mar 15;111:100-108. doi: 10.1016/j.watres.2016.12.028. Epub 2016 Dec 19.
Two hypothetical scenario exercises were designed and conducted to reflect the increasingly extreme weather-related challenges faced by water utilities as the global climate changes. The first event was based on an extreme flood scenario. The second scenario involved a combination of weather events, including a wild forest fire ('bushfire') followed by runoff due to significant rainfall. For each scenario, a panel of diverse personnel from water utilities and relevant agencies (e.g. health departments) formed a hypothetical water utility and associated regulatory body to manage water quality following the simulated extreme weather event. A larger audience participated by asking questions and contributing key insights. Participants were confronted with unanticipated developments as the simulated scenarios unfolded, introduced by a facilitator. Participants were presented with information that may have challenged their conventional experiences regarding operational procedures in order to identify limitations in current procedures, assumptions, and readily available information. The process worked toward the identification of a list of specific key lessons for each event. At the conclusion of each simulation a facilitated discussion was used to establish key lessons of value to water utilities in preparing them for similar future extreme events.
设计并开展了两个假设情景演练，以反映随着全球气候变化，水务公司面临的日益极端的与天气相关的挑战。第一个事件基于一个极端洪水情景。第二个情景涉及一系列天气事件，包括野火（“森林大火”）以及随后因强降雨导致的径流。对于每个情景，来自水务公司和相关机构（例如卫生部门）的多元化人员小组组成了一个假设的水务公司和相关监管机构，以在模拟极端天气事件后管理水质。更多的参与者通过提问和提供关键见解参与其中。参与者面临着由主持人引入的模拟情景展开过程中出现的意外情况。参与者被提供了可能挑战他们关于操作程序的传统经验的信息，以便确定当前程序、假设和现有信息的局限性。该过程旨在确定每个事件的具体关键经验教训列表。在每次模拟结束时，都进行了有主持人引导的讨论，以确定对水务公司有价值的关键经验教训，使他们为未来类似的极端事件做好准备。
