Prediction of Fibrosis Progression Rate in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C Genotype 4: Role of Cirrhosis Risk Score and Host Factors.

The rate of liver fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients is highly variable and affected by different factors. This study aimed to assess the role of cirrhosis risk score (CRS) based on 7 genetic variants (7 single-nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]) and host factors (age and sex) in the prediction of the rate of fibrosis progression in CHC. Duration of infection was determined in 115 patients. The fibrosis progression rate (FPR) per year was calculated as the ratio between fibrosis stage and the duration of infection. SNP genotyping were performed and CRS was determined based on it. FPR was significantly elevated in patients who acquired infection at age >40 years versus those who acquired infection at 30-40 years and those who acquired infection at <30 years. Median FPR was significantly higher in males than females (0.17 vs. 0.15) with P = 0.001. CRS value ≥0.8 is predictive of patients with high risk for cirrhosis, and CRS value <0.5 is predictive of patients with low risk for cirrhosis. There was significant positive correlation between CRS and FPR (P ≤ 0.001). CRS based on 7 SNPs at cutoff value ≥0.8, age at infection >40 years, and male sex are predictors of higher FPR.