Department Land, Environment, Agriculture and Forestry, University of Padova, Agripolis, viale dell'Università, 16, Legnaro (PD), Italy.
Sci Rep. 2017 Jan 12;7:40527. doi: 10.1038/srep40527.
Raising interest in the interaction between humans and climate drivers to understand the past and current development of floods in urbanised landscapes is of great importance. This study presents a regional screening of land-use, rainfall regime and flood dynamics in north-eastern Italy, covering the timeframe 1900-2010. This analysis suggests that, statistically, both climate and land-use have been contributing to a significant increase of the contribution of short duration floods to the increase in the number of flooded locations. The analysis also suggests that interaction arises, determining land-use dynamics to couple with climatic changes influencing the flood aggressiveness simultaneously. Given that it is not possible to control the climatic trend, an effective disaster management clearly needs an integrated approach to land planning and supervision. This research shows that land management and planning should include the investigation of the location of the past and future social and economic drivers for development, as well as past and current climatic trends.
提高人们对人类与气候驱动因素相互作用的兴趣，以了解城市化景观中洪水的过去和当前发展情况，这一点非常重要。本研究对意大利东北部的土地利用、降雨格局和洪水动态进行了区域筛选，涵盖了 1900 年至 2010 年的时间范围。该分析表明，从统计学角度来看，气候和土地利用都促成了短历时洪水对增加洪灾发生地点数量的贡献的显著增加。该分析还表明，相互作用的出现决定了土地利用动态与同时影响洪水侵袭性的气候变化相耦合。鉴于无法控制气候趋势，有效的灾害管理显然需要土地规划和监督的综合方法。本研究表明，土地管理和规划应包括调查过去和未来社会经济发展驱动因素以及过去和当前气候趋势的位置。
