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通过社会伙伴关系调整控制疫情。

Control of epidemics via social partnership adjustment.

机构信息

School of Science, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, People's Republic of China.

School of Mathematical Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

Phys Rev E. 2016 Dec;94(6-1):062314. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.94.062314. Epub 2016 Dec 23.

Abstract

Epidemic control is of great importance for human society. Adjusting interacting partners is an effective individualized control strategy. Intuitively, it is done either by shortening the interaction time between susceptible and infected individuals or by increasing the opportunities for contact between susceptible individuals. Here, we provide a comparative study on these two control strategies by establishing an epidemic model with nonuniform stochastic interactions. It seems that the two strategies should be similar, since shortening the interaction time between susceptible and infected individuals somehow increases the chances for contact between susceptible individuals. However, analytical results indicate that the effectiveness of the former strategy sensitively depends on the infectious intensity and the combinations of different interaction rates, whereas the latter one is quite robust and efficient. Simulations are shown to verify our analytical predictions. Our work may shed light on the strategic choice of disease control.

摘要

疫情控制对人类社会至关重要。调整相互作用的伙伴是一种有效的个性化控制策略。直观地说,可以通过缩短易感人群和感染者之间的相互作用时间,或者通过增加易感人群之间接触的机会来实现。在这里,我们通过建立一个具有非均匀随机相互作用的传染病模型,对这两种控制策略进行了比较研究。这两种策略似乎应该是相似的,因为缩短易感人群和感染者之间的相互作用时间在某种程度上增加了易感人群之间接触的机会。然而,分析结果表明,前者策略的有效性高度依赖于感染强度和不同相互作用率的组合,而后者策略则相当稳健和高效。模拟结果验证了我们的分析预测。我们的工作可能为疾病控制的策略选择提供一些启示。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/242b/7217516/19c9f32dd311/e062314_1.jpg

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