Lester Philip J, Haywood John, Archer Michael E, Shortall Chris R
School of Biological Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand.
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand.
J Anim Ecol. 2017 Mar;86(2):337-347. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.12622. Epub 2017 Jan 17.
Populations of introduced species are often thought to perform differently, or experience different population dynamics, in their introduced range compared to their native habitat. Differences between habitats in climate, competition or natural enemies may result in populations with varying density dependence and population dynamics. We examined the long-term population dynamics of the invasive common wasp, Vespula vulgaris, in its native range in England and its invaded range in New Zealand. We used 39 years of wasp density data from four sites in England, and 23 years of data from six sites in New Zealand. Wasp population time series was examined using partial rate correlation functions. Gompertz population models and multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models were fitted, incorporating climatic variation. Gompertz models successfully explained 59-66% of the variation in wasp abundance between years. Density dependence in wasp populations appeared to act similarly in both the native and invaded range, with wasp abundance in the previous year as the most important variable in predicting intrinsic rate of increase (r). No evidence of cyclic population dynamics was observed. Both the Gompertz and MARSS models highlighted the role of weather conditions in each country as significant predictors of annual wasp abundance. The temporal evolution of wasp populations at all sites was best modelled jointly using a single latent dynamic factor for local trends, with the inclusion of a latent spring weather covariate. That same parsimonious multivariate model structure was optimal in both the native and invaded range. Density dependence is overwhelmingly important in predicting wasp densities and 'wasp years' in both the native and invaded range. Spring weather conditions in both countries have a major influence, probably through their impact on wasp colony initiation and early development. The population dynamics in the native range and invaded range show no evidence of cyclic boom-and-bust dynamics. Invasive species may not exhibit different population dynamics despite considerable variation in abundances throughout their distribution.
人们通常认为，外来物种在其引入地的表现与在原生栖息地不同，或者经历不同的种群动态。气候、竞争或天敌等栖息地之间的差异可能导致种群具有不同的密度依赖性和种群动态。我们研究了入侵性普通黄蜂（Vespula vulgaris）在其英国原生地和新西兰入侵地的长期种群动态。我们使用了来自英国四个地点的39年黄蜂密度数据，以及来自新西兰六个地点的23年数据。使用偏率相关函数检查黄蜂种群时间序列。拟合了Gompertz种群模型和多元自回归状态空间（MARSS）模型，并纳入了气候变化因素。Gompertz模型成功解释了年间黄蜂丰度变化的59%-66%。黄蜂种群的密度依赖性在原生地和入侵地的表现似乎相似，前一年的黄蜂丰度是预测内在增长率（r）的最重要变量。未观察到种群动态循环的证据。Gompertz模型和MARSS模型都强调了每个国家天气条件作为年度黄蜂丰度重要预测因子的作用。所有地点黄蜂种群的时间演变最好通过使用一个单一的潜在动态因子来联合模拟当地趋势，并纳入一个潜在的春季天气协变量。相同的简约多元模型结构在原生地和入侵地都是最优的。密度依赖性在预测原生地和入侵地的黄蜂密度及“黄蜂年”方面极为重要。两国的春季天气条件都有重大影响，可能是通过对黄蜂蜂群起始和早期发育的影响。原生地和入侵地的种群动态均未显示出周期性兴衰动态的证据。尽管入侵物种在其分布范围内的丰度存在相当大的差异，但它们可能不会表现出不同的种群动态。
