开发一种模型以预测癌症幸存者中第二原发性癌症的10年累积风险。

Development of a model to predict the 10-year cumulative risk of second primary cancer among cancer survivors.

作者信息

Moitry Marie, Velten Michel, Trétarre Brigitte, Bara Simona, Daubisse-Marliac Laetitia, Lapôtre-Ledoux Bénédicte, Troussard Xavier, Molinié Florence, Ligier Karine, Woronoff Anne-Sophie, Bouvier Véronique, Colonna Marc, Klein Delphine, Guizard Anne-Valérie, Jégu Jérémie

机构信息

Registre des cancers du Bas-Rhin, Laboratoire d'Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique, EA3430, FMTS, Université de Strasbourg, 4 rue Kirschleger, 67085 Strasbourg CEDEX, France; Service de Santé Publique, Hôpitaux Universitaires de Strasbourg, 1 place de l'hôpital, 67091 Strasbourg CEDEX, France; Francim: Réseau français des registres des cancers, 31073 Toulouse, France.

Registre des cancers du Bas-Rhin, Laboratoire d'Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique, EA3430, FMTS, Université de Strasbourg, 4 rue Kirschleger, 67085 Strasbourg CEDEX, France; Service de Santé Publique, Hôpitaux Universitaires de Strasbourg, 1 place de l'hôpital, 67091 Strasbourg CEDEX, France; Service d'épidémiologie et de biostatistique, Centre Paul Strauss, 3 rue de la porte de l'hôpital, 67065 Strasbourg CEDEX, France; Francim: Réseau français des registres des cancers, 31073 Toulouse, France.

出版信息

Cancer Epidemiol. 2017 Apr;47:35-41. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2017.01.001. Epub 2017 Jan 21.

DOI:10.1016/j.canep.2017.01.001

PMID:28113110

Abstract

BACKGROUND

To develop a prediction model to quantify the cumulative risk of Second Primary Cancer (SPC) among cancer patients given that they survive their disease.

METHODS

A cohort of 293,435 patients based on data from twelve French cancer registries was analyzed. For five first cancer sites, SPC incidence rates were estimated using Poisson regression models. The cumulative risks of SPC were computed for different follow-up times. For comparison purpose, the same method was used to estimate the probability of cancer in the general population.

RESULTS

In this population-based cohort, 27,320 patients presented with a SPC. The cumulative risk of SPC varied depending on first cancer site, with a 10-year cumulative probability of SPC ranging from 6.2% for women with breast cancer to 44.0% for men with head and neck cancer. Compared with the general population, the 10-year cumulative risk of SPC was dramatically elevated for tobacco-related first cancers, with an increase of +7.3% for men aged 55 to 64 with a first lung cancer and +35.6% for men aged 45 to 54 with a first head and neck cancer. Lower differences were observed among patients diagnosed with a first prostate cancer (+5.5% among men aged 55 to 64), colorectal (+4.1% for women aged 55 to 64 and +6.3% for men aged 55 to 64), and breast (+2.0% among females aged 75 and older) cancers.

CONCLUSION

This study provides physicians with a practical estimate to assess the risk of SPC of their patients more accurately.

摘要

背景

鉴于癌症患者在疾病中存活，开发一种预测模型以量化其发生第二原发性癌症（SPC）的累积风险。

方法

基于来自12个法国癌症登记处的数据，对293,435名患者的队列进行了分析。对于五个首发癌症部位，使用泊松回归模型估计SPC发病率。计算了不同随访时间的SPC累积风险。为作比较，采用相同方法估计一般人群患癌的概率。

结果

在这个基于人群的队列中，27,320名患者出现了SPC。SPC的累积风险因首发癌症部位而异，乳腺癌女性的SPC 10年累积概率为6.2%，头颈部癌男性为44.0%。与一般人群相比，与烟草相关的首发癌症的SPC 10年累积风险显著升高，首发肺癌的55至64岁男性增加了7.3%，首发头颈部癌的45至54岁男性增加了35.6%。在诊断为首发前列腺癌（55至64岁男性中为5.5%）、结直肠癌（55至64岁女性中为4.1%，55至64岁男性中为6.3%）和乳腺癌（75岁及以上女性中为2.0%）的患者中观察到的差异较小。