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基于响应面建模的源贡献分析与 VOC 排放控制政策评估——以中国典型臭氧污染城市顺德为例

Response surface modeling-based source contribution analysis and VOC emission control policy assessment in a typical ozone-polluted urban Shunde, China.

机构信息

Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Pollution Control, College of Environment and Energy, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center, Guangzhou 510006, China.

Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Pollution Control, College of Environment and Energy, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center, Guangzhou 510006, China; State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.

出版信息

J Environ Sci (China). 2017 Jan;51:294-304. doi: 10.1016/j.jes.2016.05.034. Epub 2016 Jul 29.

DOI:10.1016/j.jes.2016.05.034
PMID:28115141
Abstract

To develop a sound ozone (O) pollution control strategy, it is important to well understand and characterize the source contribution due to the complex chemical and physical formation processes of O. Using the "Shunde" city as a pilot summer case study, we apply an innovative response surface modeling (RSM) methodology based on the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling simulations to identify the O regime and provide dynamic analysis of the precursor contributions to effectively assess the O impacts of volatile organic compound (VOC) control strategy. Our results show that Shunde is a typical VOC-limited urban O polluted city. The "Jiangmen" city, as the main upper wind area during July 2014, its VOCs and nitrogen oxides (NO) emissions make up the largest contribution (9.06%). On the contrary, the contribution from local (Shunde) emission is lowest (6.35%) among the seven neighbor regions. The local VOCs industrial source emission has the largest contribution comparing to other precursor emission sectors in Shunde. The results of dynamic source contribution analysis further show that the local NO control could slightly increase the ground O under low (10.00%) and medium (40.00%) reduction ratios, while it could start to turn positive to decrease ground O under the high NO abatement ratio (75.00%). The real-time assessment of O impacts from VOCs control strategies in Pearl River Delta (PRD) shows that the joint regional VOCs emission control policy will effectively reduce the ground O concentration in Shunde.

摘要

为了制定健全的臭氧(O)污染控制策略,重要的是要充分了解和描述由于 O 的复杂化学和物理形成过程而导致的来源贡献。我们以“顺德”市作为夏季试点案例,应用一种基于社区多尺度空气质量(CMAQ)建模模拟的创新响应面建模(RSM)方法,以确定 O 状态,并提供前体贡献的动态分析,从而有效评估挥发性有机化合物(VOC)控制策略对 O 的影响。我们的结果表明,顺德是一个典型的受 VOC 限制的城市 O 污染城市。“江门”市作为 2014 年 7 月的主要上风区,其 VOC 和氮氧化物(NO)排放量贡献最大(9.06%)。相反,在七个邻近地区中,来自本地(顺德)的排放贡献最低(6.35%)。与其他前体排放部门相比,本地 VOC 工业源排放对顺德的贡献最大。动态源贡献分析的结果进一步表明,在低(10.00%)和中(40.00%)减排率下,本地 NO 控制可以略微增加地面 O,但在高 NO 减排率(75.00%)下,它将开始转为积极降低地面 O。珠江三角洲(PRD)VOCs 控制策略对 O 影响的实时评估表明,联合区域 VOCs 排放控制政策将有效降低顺德的地面 O 浓度。

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