Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Brown University, 324 Brook Street, Box 1846, Providence, RI 02912, USA.
Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Brown University, 324 Brook Street, Box 1846, Providence, RI 02912, USA.; Institute at Brown for Environment and Society, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USA.
Sci Adv. 2017 Jan 27;3(1):e1600815. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1600815. eCollection 2017 Jan.
The gradient of air temperature with elevation (the temperature lapse rate) in the tropics is predicted to become less steep during the coming century as surface temperature rises, enhancing the threat of warming in high-mountain environments. However, the sensitivity of the lapse rate to climate change is uncertain because of poor constraints on high-elevation temperature during past climate states. We present a 25,000-year temperature reconstruction from Mount Kenya, East Africa, which demonstrates that cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum was amplified with elevation and hence that the lapse rate was significantly steeper than today. Comparison of our data with paleoclimate simulations indicates that state-of-the-art models underestimate this lapse-rate change. Consequently, future high-elevation tropical warming may be even greater than predicted.
随着未来地表温度的升高，热带地区海拔高度与气温的梯度（气温垂直递减率）预计会变得更加平缓，从而加剧高山环境变暖的威胁。然而，由于过去气候条件下对高海拔温度的限制较差，因此气候变化对垂直递减率的敏感性仍不确定。我们展示了来自东非肯尼亚山的 25000 年温度重建记录，结果表明，在末次冰盛期，冷却作用随着海拔的升高而放大，因此垂直递减率明显比现在陡峭。我们的数据与古气候模拟的比较表明，最先进的模型低估了这种垂直递减率的变化。因此，未来热带高海拔地区的变暖可能比预期的还要大。
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