Thompson Lonnie G
The Ohio State University, USA.
Proc Am Philos Soc. 2010 Jun;154(2):133-57.
Glaciers are among the world's best recorders of, and first responders to, natural and anthropogenic climate change and provide a time perspective for current climatic and environmental variations. Over the last 50 years such records have been recovered from the polar regions as well as low-latitude, high-elevation ice fields. Analyses of these ice cores and of the glaciers from which they have been drilled have yielded three lines of evidence for past and present abrupt climate change: (1) the temperature and precipitation histories recorded in the glaciers as revealed by the climate records extracted from the ice cores; (2) the accelerating loss of the glaciers themselves; and (3) the uncovering of ancient fauna and flora from the margins of the glaciers as a result of their recent melting, thus illustrating the significance of the current ice loss. The current melting of high-altitude, low-latitude ice fields is consistent with model predictions for a vertical amplification of temperature in the tropics. The ongoing rapid retreat of the world's mountain glaciers, as well as the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, is not only contributing to global sea level rise, but also threatening fresh-water supplies in many of the most populous regions. More recently, strong evidence has appeared for the acceleration of the rate of ice loss in the tropics, which especially presents a clear and present danger to water supplies for at-risk populations in South America and Asia. The human response to this issue, however, is not so clear, for although the evidence from both data and models becomes more compelling, the rate of global CO2 emissions continues to accelerate. Climatologically, we are in unfamiliar territory, and the world's ice cover is responding dramatically. The loss of glaciers, which can be viewed as the world's water towers, threatens water resources that are essential for hydroelectric power, crop irrigation, municipal water supplies, and even tourism. As these glaciers are disappearing, we are also losing very valuable paleoclimate archives.
冰川是世界上对自然和人为气候变化的最佳记录者和首批响应者之一,为当前的气候和环境变化提供了一个时间视角。在过去50年里,人们已从极地地区以及低纬度、高海拔冰原获取了此类记录。对这些冰芯以及钻取冰芯的冰川进行分析,得出了过去和当前气候突变的三条证据:(1)从冰芯提取的气候记录所揭示的冰川中记录的温度和降水历史;(2)冰川自身加速消融;(3)由于冰川近期融化,在冰川边缘发现了古代动植物,从而说明了当前冰川消融的重要性。当前高海拔、低纬度冰原的融化与热带地区温度垂直放大的模型预测一致。世界上山地冰川以及格陵兰和南极冰盖边缘持续迅速退缩,不仅导致全球海平面上升,还威胁着许多人口密集地区的淡水供应。最近,有确凿证据表明热带地区冰川消融速度加快,这尤其给南美洲和亚洲面临风险的人群的供水带来了迫在眉睫且明显的危险。然而,人类对此问题的应对并不明确,因为尽管数据和模型提供的证据越来越有说服力,但全球二氧化碳排放速度仍在加快。从气候学角度看,我们正处于未知领域,全球冰盖正在做出剧烈反应。冰川的消融可被视为世界的水塔,威胁着水电、作物灌溉、城市供水乃至旅游业所必需的水资源。随着这些冰川消失,我们也正在失去非常宝贵的古气候档案资料。