Sánchez-Hurtado Luis Alejandro, Ángeles-Veléz Adrian, Tejeda-Huezo Brigette Carmen, García-Cruz Juan Carlos, Juárez-Cedillo Teresa
Department of Critical Care Medicine, Hospital Especialidades "Antonio Fraga Mouret" Centro Médico Nacional La Raza Mexican, Institute of Social Security, Mexico City, Mexico; Department of Critical Care Medicine, Instituto Nacional de Cancerología, Mexico City, Mexico.
Department of Critical Care Medicine, Hospital Especialidades "Antonio Fraga Mouret" Centro Médico Nacional La Raza Mexican, Institute of Social Security, Mexico City, Mexico.
Indian J Crit Care Med. 2016 Dec;20(12):695-700. doi: 10.4103/0972-5229.195702.
The performance of a prognostic score must be evaluated prior to being used. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictive ability of hospital mortality of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) score in elderly patients admitted to Intensive Care Units (ICUs).
The aim of the present study was to evaluate the SAPS 3 score predictive ability of hospital mortality in elderly patients admitted to ICU.
This study was conducted as a prospective cohort, in two mixed ICUs.
Two hundred and eleven elderly patients were included.
None. We compared the predictive accuracy of SAPS 3 measured at the first hour at ICU and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) measured with the worst values in the first 24 h at ICU. The patients were followed until hospital discharge.
Evaluation of discrimination through area under curve receiver operating characteristic (aROC) and calibration by Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test.
The median age was 68 years. The hospital mortality rate was 35.54%. The mean value of SAPS 3 was 62.54 ± 12.51 and APACHE II was 17.46 ± 6.77. The mortality predicted by APACHE II was 24.98 ± 19.96 and for standard SAPS 3 equation 41.18 ± 22.34. The discrimination for SAPS 3 model was aROC = 0.68 (0.62-0.75) and to APACHE II aROC = 0.70 (0.63-0.78). Calibration: APACHE II with HL 10.127 = 0.26, and standard SAPS 3 equation HL 7.204 = 0.51.
In this study, the prognostic model of SAPS 3 was not found to be accurate in predicting mortality in geriatric patients requiring ICU admission.
在使用预后评分之前必须对其性能进行评估。本研究的目的是评估简化急性生理学评分3（SAPS 3）对入住重症监护病房（ICU）的老年患者医院死亡率的预测能力。
本研究的目的是评估SAPS 3评分对入住ICU的老年患者医院死亡率的预测能力。
本研究作为一项前瞻性队列研究，在两个综合性ICU中进行。
纳入211例老年患者。
无。我们比较了在ICU第一个小时测得的SAPS 3与在ICU最初24小时内测得的最差值的急性生理学与慢性健康状况评分II（APACHE II）的预测准确性。对患者进行随访直至出院。
通过曲线下面积受试者工作特征（aROC）评估辨别能力，并通过Hosmer-Lemeshow（HL）检验进行校准。
中位年龄为68岁。医院死亡率为35.54%。SAPS 3的平均值为62.54±12.51，APACHE II为17.46±6.77。APACHE II预测的死亡率为24.98±19.96，标准SAPS 3方程预测的死亡率为41.18±22.34。SAPS 3模型的辨别能力为aROC = 0.68（0.62 - 0.75），APACHE II为aROC = 0.70（0.63 - 0.78）。校准：APACHE II的HL值为10.127，P = 0.26，标准SAPS 3方程的HL值为7.204，P = 0.51。
在本研究中，未发现SAPS 3预后模型在预测需要入住ICU的老年患者死亡率方面准确。
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