State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875, China.
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2017 May 15;586:328-337. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.010. Epub 2017 Feb 8.
Understanding the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in runoff is important for sustainable management of regional water resources. In this study, we systematically review ten commonly used quantitative methods drawn from three main categories-empirical statistics, elasticity-based methods, and hydrological modeling. We explain the calculation processes for the different methods and summarize their applications and characteristics. Then, using the Yanhe River basin as a case study, we employ all ten methods to separate out the effects of climate change and human activities on changes in runoff. The results show that climate change played a dominant role in the decline in runoff in the Yanhe River basin. Climate change was estimated to account for 46.1%-60.8% (mean 54.1%) of the total decrease in runoff, whereas human activities accounted for 39.1%-53.9% (mean 45.9%). Elasticity-based methods and hydrological modeling produced similar estimates, but the estimates made using empirical statistics were different. Empirical statistics were not a suitable method for the Yanhe River basin. We also discuss the factors that influence the different methods and the applicable conditions for each methodological category.
了解气候变化和人类活动对径流量变化的相对贡献，对于区域水资源的可持续管理至关重要。本研究系统回顾了三种主要方法（经验统计法、弹性分析法和水文模型法）中常用的十种定量方法。我们解释了不同方法的计算过程，并总结了它们的应用和特点。然后，我们以延河流域为例，运用这十种方法分离气候变化和人类活动对径流量变化的影响。结果表明，气候变化是延河流域径流量减少的主要原因。气候变化估计占径流量总减少量的 46.1%-60.8%（平均值为 54.1%），而人类活动占 39.1%-53.9%（平均值为 45.9%）。弹性分析法和水文模型法得出的结果相似，但经验统计法的结果不同。经验统计法不适合延河流域。我们还讨论了影响不同方法的因素以及每个方法类别适用的条件。
