Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, P.R. China.
Department of Clinical Pharmacology, School of Pharmaceutical Science, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, P.R. China.
Sci Rep. 2017 Feb 17;7:42685. doi: 10.1038/srep42685.
The purpose of this study was to establish a simple and effective risk score for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in middle-aged rural Chinese. Total of 5453 participants aged 30-59 years from the Rural Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (RuralDiab) study were recruited for establishing the RuralDiab risk score by using logistic regression analysis. The RuralDiab risk score was validated in a prospective study from Henan Province of China, and compared with previous risk scores by using the receiver-operating characteristics cure. Ultimately, sex, age, family history of diabetes, physical activity, waist circumference, history of dyslipidemia, diastolic blood pressure, body mass index were included in the RuralDiab risk score (range from 0 to 36), and the optimal cutoff value was 17 with 67.9% sensitivity and 67.8% specificity. The area under the cures (AUC) of the RuralDiab risk score was 0.723(95%CI: 0.710-0.735) for T2DM in validation population, which was significant higher than the American Diabetes Association score (AUC: 0.636), the Inter99 score (AUC: 0.669), the Oman risk score (AUC: 0.675). The RuralDiab risk score was established and demonstrated an appropriate performance for predicting T2DM in middle-aged Chinese rural population. Further studies for validation should be implemented in different populations.
本研究旨在为中国中年农村人群建立一种简单有效的 2 型糖尿病（T2DM）风险评分。共招募了 5453 名年龄在 30-59 岁的农村糖尿病、肥胖和生活方式（RuralDiab）研究参与者，通过逻辑回归分析建立 RuralDiab 风险评分。RuralDiab 风险评分在中国河南省前瞻性研究中得到验证，并通过接受者操作特征曲线（ROC）比较与以前的风险评分。最终，性别、年龄、糖尿病家族史、体力活动、腰围、血脂异常史、舒张压、体重指数被纳入 RuralDiab 风险评分（范围 0-36），最佳截断值为 17，敏感性为 67.9%，特异性为 67.8%。RuralDiab 风险评分在验证人群中预测 T2DM 的曲线下面积（AUC）为 0.723（95%CI：0.710-0.735），明显高于美国糖尿病协会评分（AUC：0.636）、Inter99 评分（AUC：0.669）、阿曼风险评分（AUC：0.675）。RuralDiab 风险评分建立并证明了其在中国中年农村人群中预测 T2DM 的适当性能。应在不同人群中进行进一步的验证研究。
