Cohort study evaluation of New Chinese Diabetes Risk Score: a new non-invasive indicator for predicting type 2 diabetes mellitus.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate the predictive power of new Chinese Diabetes Risk Score (NCDRS) for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) based on a large prospective cohort study.

STUDY DESIGN

Large prospective cohort study.

METHODS

The baseline examination of the Rural Chinese Cohort Study was initiated in 2007-2008 and followed up in 2013-2014 in Luoyang city, Henan Province of China. The NCDRS included age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, and family history of diabetes. Cox's proportional-hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The predictive capability of NCDRS was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

A total of 9,860 participants were included in the present analysis, and during a median follow-up of 6.01 years, 653 of them developed T2DM. In the multivariate models, the risk of T2DM showed a significant increasing trend (P <0.001): with NCDRS of 18-23, 24-29, and >29 versus <18, the HR was 1.85 (95% CI 1.30-2.64), 2.99 (2.14-4.18), and 3.97 (2.84-5.54), respectively. The predictive value was higher for NCDRS than for the previous Chinese diabetes risk score: AUC 0.675 (95% CI 0.666-0.684) and optimal cut-off of 24 (P < 0.001). Similar results were observed by sex. Especially, the predictive value of NCDRS was high among young people (aged 20-39 years): AUC 0.751 (0.732-0.769).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study, based on a large prospective cohort, suggests that NCDRS is a reliable indicator for the identification of T2DM in rural China, especially in younger populations.