Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, People's Republic of China.
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shenzhen University Health Science Center, Shenzhen, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.
Public Health. 2022 Jul;208:25-31. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2022.04.014. Epub 2022 Jun 7.
We aimed to evaluate the predictive power of new Chinese Diabetes Risk Score (NCDRS) for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) based on a large prospective cohort study.
Large prospective cohort study.
The baseline examination of the Rural Chinese Cohort Study was initiated in 2007-2008 and followed up in 2013-2014 in Luoyang city, Henan Province of China. The NCDRS included age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, and family history of diabetes. Cox's proportional-hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The predictive capability of NCDRS was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).
A total of 9,860 participants were included in the present analysis, and during a median follow-up of 6.01 years, 653 of them developed T2DM. In the multivariate models, the risk of T2DM showed a significant increasing trend (P <0.001): with NCDRS of 18-23, 24-29, and >29 versus <18, the HR was 1.85 (95% CI 1.30-2.64), 2.99 (2.14-4.18), and 3.97 (2.84-5.54), respectively. The predictive value was higher for NCDRS than for the previous Chinese diabetes risk score: AUC 0.675 (95% CI 0.666-0.684) and optimal cut-off of 24 (P < 0.001). Similar results were observed by sex. Especially, the predictive value of NCDRS was high among young people (aged 20-39 years): AUC 0.751 (0.732-0.769).
Our study, based on a large prospective cohort, suggests that NCDRS is a reliable indicator for the identification of T2DM in rural China, especially in younger populations.
我们旨在通过一项大型前瞻性队列研究评估新的中国糖尿病风险评分（NCDRS）对 2 型糖尿病（T2DM）的预测能力。
大型前瞻性队列研究。
中国农村队列研究的基线检查于 2007-2008 年启动，并于 2013-2014 年在河南省洛阳市进行了随访。NCDRS 包括年龄、性别、体重指数、腰围、收缩压和糖尿病家族史。Cox 比例风险模型用于估计风险比（HR）和 95%置信区间（CI）。使用受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC）评估 NCDRS 的预测能力。
本分析共纳入 9860 名参与者，中位随访时间为 6.01 年，其中 653 人发生 T2DM。在多变量模型中，T2DM 的风险呈显著上升趋势（P<0.001）：与 NCDRS<18、18-23、24-29 和>29 相比，HR 分别为 1.85（95%CI 1.30-2.64）、2.99（2.14-4.18）和 3.97（2.84-5.54）。NCDRS 的预测价值高于既往中国糖尿病风险评分：AUC 为 0.675（95%CI 0.666-0.684），最佳截断值为 24（P<0.001）。性别之间也观察到类似的结果。特别是，NCDRS 在年轻人（年龄 20-39 岁）中的预测价值较高：AUC 为 0.751（0.732-0.769）。
本研究基于一项大型前瞻性队列研究，表明 NCDRS 是中国农村地区识别 T2DM 的可靠指标，特别是在年轻人群中。
