制冷剂在日本家用空调行业的流动、存量和影响评估。
Flow, stock, and impact assessment of refrigerants in the Japanese household air conditioner sector.
机构信息
Division of Sustainable Energy and Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, 2-1 Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka 565 0871, Japan.
Division of Sustainable Energy and Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, 2-1 Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka 565 0871, Japan.
出版信息
Sci Total Environ. 2017 May 15;586:1308-1315. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.145. Epub 2017 Feb 22.
Refrigerants provide society with great benefits while have the potential to cause adverse effects on the environment and human health. The present study estimated time-dependent flows and stocks and assessed the effects of refrigerants (R-22, R-410a, and R-32) in household air conditioners in Japan. It was found that stock of R-22 and R-410a peaked at 49,147t in 2000 and 55,994t in 2017, respectively. The largest flow of R-22 and R-410a to waste phase occurred at 3417t/yr. in 2005 and 4011t/yr. in 2023, respectively. The total global warming potential (GWP) due to refrigerant emissions increased from 3.6kt CO eq. in 1952 to 6999kt CO eq. in 2019, and then decreased to 5314kt CO eq. in 2030. The ozone depletion potential (ODP) peaked at 141t CFC-11 eq. in 2002. When substituting R-410a for R-22, the ODP decreased 50% while the GDP increased 8%. When substituting R-32 for R-410a, there was no effect on the ODP while the GDP decreased 6%. The human health damage due to the global warming effect of refrigerant emission was much higher than that due to the ozone depleting effect. The refrigerant emission in use and waste management phases dominated the human health damage. The dynamic estimation not only allows us to evaluate the performance of past policies but also supports the future sustainable management associated with the health effects of refrigerants.
制冷剂在给社会带来巨大益处的同时，也有可能对环境和人类健康造成不利影响。本研究估算了日本家用空调制冷剂（R-22、R-410a 和 R-32）的时变流量和存量，并评估了它们的影响。结果表明，R-22 和 R-410a 的存量分别于 2000 年和 2017 年达到峰值，分别为 49147 吨和 55994 吨。R-22 和 R-410a 流向废物阶段的最大流量分别出现在 2005 年的 3417 吨/年和 2023 年的 4011 吨/年。由于制冷剂排放导致的总全球变暖潜势（GWP）从 1952 年的 3.6kt CO eq.增加到 2019 年的 6999kt CO eq.，然后在 2030 年下降到 5314kt CO eq.。臭氧消耗潜势（ODP）在 2002 年达到 141t CFC-11 eq.的峰值。用 R-410a 替代 R-22 时，ODP 下降了 50%，而 GDP 增加了 8%。用 R-32 替代 R-410a 时，ODP 没有变化，而 GDP 下降了 6%。由于制冷剂排放的温室效应造成的人类健康损害远高于臭氧消耗效应。在使用和废物管理阶段的制冷剂排放主导了人类健康损害。动态估计不仅使我们能够评估过去政策的绩效，而且还支持与制冷剂健康影响相关的未来可持续管理。
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